Showing 1 - 10 of 30
This paper proposes three short-term forecasting models for the adjusted external reserves using the seasonal …-out-of-sample forecasting procedure over July 2013 to May 2014. The results show that SARIMA model outperformed the other models in three to six … months forecast horizon, whereas ARDL model performs better in one to two months forecast horizon. Therefore, in forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011473622
In this paper, we study the dynamics and drivers of sovereign bond yields in euro area countries using a factor model with time-varying loading coeffi cients and stochastic volatility, which allows for capturing changes in the pricing mechanism of bond yields. Our key contribution is exploring...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012963728
I show that the detrending of financial variables with the Hodrick and Prescott (1981, 1997) (HP) and band-pass filters leads to spurious cycles. I find that distortions become especially severe when considering medium-term cycles, i.e., cycles that exceed the duration of regular business...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012923312
This paper investigates chaos in a Nigerian mutual fund, Asset and Resource Management Company Limited (ARM) for a period of eleven years. The existence of chaotic signals in the data was identified by the reconstruction of the phase space of the daily closing price of the fund and the delay...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011474696
This paper examines exchange-rate volatility with GARCH models using monthly exchange-rate return series from 1985:1 to 2011:7 for Naira/US dollar return and from 2004:1 to 2011:7 for Naira/British Pounds and Naira/Euro returns. The study compare estimates of variants of GARCH models with break...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011476095
forecasting methods. The present paper critically evaluates the electricity demand forecasting methodology and proposes a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005626875
This work considers the application of Periodogram and Fourier Series Analysis to model all-items monthly inflation rates in Nigeria from 2003 to 2011. The main objectives are to identify inflation cycles, fit a suitable model to the data and make forecasts of future values. To achieve these...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011474361
The study reports empirical evidence that artificial neural network based models are applicable to forecasting of stock … the artificial neural network based models outperformed the ARIMA based model in forecasting future developments of the … can be used as predictors for forecasting future values of the stock market returns given that the returns has memory of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011488820
forecasting of inflation in Nigeria for the period of 1961 { 2016. The study employed Granger causality test, Au- toregressive … inflation threshold of 14% -15% both in the short run and long run was established for Nigeria. As for the forecasting of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011922677
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011987658