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This paper proposes three short-term forecasting models for the adjusted external reserves using the seasonal …-out-of-sample forecasting procedure over July 2013 to May 2014. The results show that SARIMA model outperformed the other models in three to six … months forecast horizon, whereas ARDL model performs better in one to two months forecast horizon. Therefore, in forecasting …
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This paper investigates chaos in a Nigerian mutual fund, Asset and Resource Management Company Limited (ARM) for a period of eleven years. The existence of chaotic signals in the data was identified by the reconstruction of the phase space of the daily closing price of the fund and the delay...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011474696
This paper examines exchange-rate volatility with GARCH models using monthly exchange-rate return series from 1985:1 to 2011:7 for Naira/US dollar return and from 2004:1 to 2011:7 for Naira/British Pounds and Naira/Euro returns. The study compare estimates of variants of GARCH models with break...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011476095
I show that the detrending of financial variables with the Hodrick and Prescott (1981, 1997) (HP) and band-pass filters leads to spurious cycles. I find that distortions become especially severe when considering medium-term cycles, i.e., cycles that exceed the duration of regular business...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012923312
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The study reports empirical evidence that artificial neural network based models are applicable to forecasting of stock … the artificial neural network based models outperformed the ARIMA based model in forecasting future developments of the … can be used as predictors for forecasting future values of the stock market returns given that the returns has memory of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011488820
This paper presents forecasts of currency in circulation prepared for liquidity management at the Central Bank of Nigeria. Forecasts were produced using ARIMA, ARIMA with structural variables, VAR and VEC models. The performance of the forecasts was then evaluated under a rolling forecast...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011474285