Showing 1 - 10 of 32
We present a hybrid model for diagnosis and critical time forecasting of real estate bubbles. The model combines two …, 35, and 90 national-level macroeconomic time series and a dynamic forecasting methodology. Empirical results suggests …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010411858
This paper proposes three short-term forecasting models for the adjusted external reserves using the seasonal …-out-of-sample forecasting procedure over July 2013 to May 2014. The results show that SARIMA model outperformed the other models in three to six … months forecast horizon, whereas ARDL model performs better in one to two months forecast horizon. Therefore, in forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011473622
We present a careful analysis of possible issues of the application of the self-excited Hawkes process to high-frequency financial data and carefully analyze a set of effects that lead to significant biases in the estimation of the "criticality index'' n that quantifies the degree of endogeneity...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010257507
This paper investigates chaos in a Nigerian mutual fund, Asset and Resource Management Company Limited (ARM) for a period of eleven years. The existence of chaotic signals in the data was identified by the reconstruction of the phase space of the daily closing price of the fund and the delay...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011474696
This paper examines exchange-rate volatility with GARCH models using monthly exchange-rate return series from 1985:1 to 2011:7 for Naira/US dollar return and from 2004:1 to 2011:7 for Naira/British Pounds and Naira/Euro returns. The study compare estimates of variants of GARCH models with break...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011476095
We consider the detection of multiple outliers in Exponential and Pareto samples -- as well as general samples that have approximately Exponential or Pareto tails, thanks to Extreme Value Theory. It is shown that a simple "robust'' modification of common test statistics makes inward sequential...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011411972
I show that the detrending of financial variables with the Hodrick and Prescott (1981, 1997) (HP) and band-pass filters leads to spurious cycles. I find that distortions become especially severe when considering medium-term cycles, i.e., cycles that exceed the duration of regular business...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012923312
Inspired by the question of identifying the start time τ of financial bubbles, we address the calibration of time series in which the inception of the latest regime of interest is unknown. By taking into account the tendency of a given model to overfit data, we introduce the Lagrange...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011877499
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011532227
The study reports empirical evidence that artificial neural network based models are applicable to forecasting of stock … the artificial neural network based models outperformed the ARIMA based model in forecasting future developments of the … can be used as predictors for forecasting future values of the stock market returns given that the returns has memory of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011488820