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On time series modeling of Nigeria's external reserves

Doguwa, Sani I.; Alade, Sarah O. - In: CBN journal of applied statistics 6 (2015) 1, pp. 1-28

This paper proposes three short-term forecasting models for the adjusted external reserves using the seasonal …-out-of-sample forecasting procedure over July 2013 to May 2014. The results show that SARIMA model outperformed the other models in three to six … months forecast horizon, whereas ARDL model performs better in one to two months forecast horizon. Therefore, in forecasting …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011473622

Interbank lending, credit risk premia and collateral

Heider, Florian; Hoerova, Marie - 2009

We study the functioning of secured and unsecured inter-bank markets in the presence of credit risk. The model generates empirical predictions that are in line with developments during the 2007-2009 financial crises. Interest rates decouple across secured and unsecured markets following an...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605153

Credit risk in general equilibrium

Eichberger, Jürgen; Rheinberger, Klaus; Summer, Martin - 2012

Credit risk models used in quantitative risk management treat credit risk analysis conceptually like a single person decision problem. From this perspective an exogenous source of risk drives the fundamental parameters of credit risk: probability of default, exposure at default and the recovery...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605490

Investigating chaos in the Nigerian Asset and Resource Management (ARM) discovery fund

Fuwape, Ibiyinka A.; Ogunjo, Samuel T. - In: CBN journal of applied statistics 4 (2013) 2, pp. 129-140

This paper investigates chaos in a Nigerian mutual fund, Asset and Resource Management Company Limited (ARM) for a period of eleven years. The existence of chaotic signals in the data was identified by the reconstruction of the phase space of the daily closing price of the fund and the delay...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011474696

Exchange-rates volatility in Nigeria : application of GARCH models with exogenous break

Bala, Dahiru A.; Asemota, Joseph O. - In: CBN journal of applied statistics 4 (2013) 1, pp. 89-116

This paper examines exchange-rate volatility with GARCH models using monthly exchange-rate return series from 1985:1 to 2011:7 for Naira/US dollar return and from 2004:1 to 2011:7 for Naira/British Pounds and Naira/Euro returns. The study compare estimates of variants of GARCH models with break...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011476095

An Analysis of Euro Area Sovereign CDS and Their Relation with Government Bonds

Fontana, Alessandro - 2010

This paper studies the relative pricing of euro area sovereign CDS and the underlying government bonds. Our sample comprises weekly CDS and bond spreads of ten euro area countries for the period from January 2006 to June 2010. We first compare the determinants of CDS spreads and bond spreads and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013135678

Risk, Capital Buffer and Bank Lending : A Granular Approach to the Adjustment of Euro Area Banks

Maurin, Laurent - 2012

We develop a partial adjustment model in order to estimate the factors contributing to banks' internal target capital ratio, lending policy and holding of securities. The model is estimated on a panel of listed euro area banks and country specific macrovariables. Firstly, banks' internal target...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013097610

An MVAR Framework to Capture Extreme Events in Macro-Prudential Stress Tests

Guarda, Paolo - 2012

Severe financial turbulences are driven by high impact and low probability events that are the characteristic hallmarks of systemic financial stress. These unlikely adverse events arise from the extreme tail of a probability distribution and are therefore very poorly captured by traditional...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013102100

Credit Risk in General Equilibrium

Eichberger, Jürgen - 2012

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013105310

Liquidity and Credit Risk Premia in Government Bond Yields

Ejsing, Jacob - 2012

This paper quantifies liquidity and credit premia in German and French government bond yields. For this purpose, we estimate term structures of government-guaranteed agency bonds and exploit the fact that any difference in their yields vis-`a-vis government bonds can be attributed to differences...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013106056