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Short-term forecasts of euro area real GDP growth: an assessment of real-time performance based on vintage data

Diron, Marie - 2006

Economic policy makers, international organisations and private-sector forecasters commonly use short-term forecasts of real GDP growth based on monthly indicators, such as industrial production, retail sales and confidence surveys. An assessment of the reliability of such tools and of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604668

Understanding inflation persistence: a comparison of different models

Dixon, Huw; Kara, Engin - 2006

This paper adopts the Impulse-Response methodology to understand inflation persistence. It has often been argued that existing models of pricing fail to explain the persistence that we observe. We adopt a common general framework which allows for an explicit modelling of the distribution of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604718

The ECB's New Multi-Country Model for the Euro Area : NMCM - With Boundedly Rational Learning Expectations

Dieppe, Alistair - 2011

Rational expectations has been the dominant way to model expectations, but the literature has quickly moved to a more realistic assumption of boundedly rational learning where agents are assumed to use only a limited set of information to form their expectations. A standard assumption is that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013128293

Understanding and Forecasting Aggregate and Disaggregate Price Dynamics

Bermingham, Colin - 2011

The issue of forecast aggregation is to determine whether it is better to forecast a series directly or instead construct forecasts of its components and then sum these component forecasts. Notwithstanding some underlying theoretical results, it is generally accepted that forecast aggregation is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013122152

Aging and Pension Reform : Extending the Retirement Age and Human Capital Formation

Vogel, Edgar - 2012

Projected demographic changes in industrialized countries will reduce the share of the working-age population. Analyses based on standard OLG models predict that these changes will increase the capital-labor ratio. Hence, rates of return to capital decrease and wages increase with adverse...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013100571

Forecasting and Stress Testing with Quantile Vector Autoregression

Chavleishvili, Sulkhan - 2019

We introduce a structural quantile vector autoregressive (VAR) model. Unlike standard VAR which models only the average interaction of the endogenous variables, quantile VAR models their interaction at any quantile. We show how to estimate and forecast multivariate quantiles within a recursive...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012859199

The International Dimension of Confidence Shocks

Dees, Stephane - 2014

Building on Beaudry, Nam and Wang (2011) - hereafter BNW -, we use survey data on consumer sentiment in order to identify the causal effects of confidence shocks on real economic activity in a selection of advanced economies. Starting from a set of closed-economy VAR models, we show that these...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013055735

On time series modeling of Nigeria's external reserves

Doguwa, Sani I.; Alade, Sarah O. - In: CBN journal of applied statistics 6 (2015) 1, pp. 1-28

This paper proposes three short-term forecasting models for the adjusted external reserves using the seasonal …-out-of-sample forecasting procedure over July 2013 to May 2014. The results show that SARIMA model outperformed the other models in three to six … months forecast horizon, whereas ARDL model performs better in one to two months forecast horizon. Therefore, in forecasting …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011473622

The dark side of bank wholesale funding

Huang, Rocco; Ratnovski, Lev - 2010

Banks increasingly use short-term wholesale funds to supplement traditional retail deposits. Existing literature mainly points to the "bright side" of wholesale funding: sophisticated financiers can monitor banks, disciplining bad but refinancing good ones. This paper models a "dark side" of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605269

Interbank lending, credit risk premia and collateral

Heider, Florian; Hoerova, Marie - 2009

We study the functioning of secured and unsecured inter-bank markets in the presence of credit risk. The model generates empirical predictions that are in line with developments during the 2007-2009 financial crises. Interest rates decouple across secured and unsecured markets following an...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605153

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