The research used a long memory or Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average model to study and forecast crude oil prices using weekly West Texas Intermediate and Brent series for the period 15/5/1987 to 20/12/2013. Fractional differencing Methods such as Local Whittle Estimator and...

This paper examined the long memory features of GDP per capita data before the global financial crisis, using a sample of 26 African countries. The study employed fractional integration and tested the stability of the differencing parameter across the sample period for each country. The results...

Long memory and nonlinearity are two key features of some macroeconomic time series which are characterized by persistent shocks that seem to rise faster during recession than it falls during expansion. A variant of nonlinear time series model together with long memory are used to examine these...

We present in this paper an alternative approach to determining and predicting the fluctuations in the daily prices and stock returns of a first-generation bank in the Nigerian Stock Market (NSM). The approach uses a three-state Markov to estimate the expected duration of the asset returns in...

The study reports empirical evidence that artificial neural network based models are applicable to forecasting of stock market returns. The Nigerian stock market logarithmic returns time series was tested for the presence of memory using the Hurst coefficient before the models were trained. The...

This study examined the dynamics of inflationary process in Nigeria over the period 1981 – 2015, using the bounds testing approach to cointegration. Empirical results indicated that inflation in Nigeria proxied by CPI exhibited a strong degree of inertia. The econometric results showed that...

This study provides analytical insight on modelling macroeconomic and oil price volatility in Nigeria. Mainly, the paper employed GARCH model and its variants (GARCH-M, EGARCH and TGARCH) with daily, monthly and quarterly data. The findings reveal that: all the macroeconomic variables considered...

This study examines the persistence of currency substitution in Nigeria by applying the Bounds testing approach to cointegration and including a ratchet variable in the estimated Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. Empirical results show that factors such as exchange rate risks,...

Several features may be present in rainfall data, and sophisticated time series procedures are needed for the analysis. These features are that of seasonality, long range dependency of observations and time trend as observed in the climatological series. This paper therefore considered the...

This study estimated Asymmetric generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscadasticity models with endogenous break dummy on two innovation assumptions using daily all share index of Nigeria, Kenya, United States, Germany, South Africa and China spanning from February 14, 2000 to February 14,...