Indicators of financial crisis generally do not have a good track record. This paper presents an early warning system for six countries in Asia, in which indicators do work.We distinguish three types of financial crises, currency crises, banking crises and debt crises, and extract four groups of...

Business cycle indexes are used to get a timely and frequent description of the state of the economy and its likely development in the near future. This paper discusses two methods for constructing business cycle indexes, the traditional NBER method and a recently developed dynamic factor model,...

Abstract There have been a variety of studies investigating the relative importance of structural change and real intensity change to the change in China’s energy consumption in the 1980s. However, no detailed analysis to date has been done to examine whether or not the increased energy...

Multinational enterprises (MNEs) play a dominant role in the international business (IB) literature. Traditionally, by far the majority of IB studies deal with issues at the micro level of the individual MNE, or at the meso level of a sample of individual MNEs. This paper focuses on a...

This article exploits a unique new dataset containing information on the economy of the Netherlands to date business cycles turning points in the 19th century (1815-1913) using a modern econometric technique. The business cycle in the Netherlands is compared to the international (UK and US)...

We test the efficiency of estimators proposed for truncated height samples with a new data set of over 23,000 height observations covering nearly all conscripts in Drenthe, a province of the Netherlands, over the period 1826-1860. We find that the `best' estimator, truncated ML, in its...

This paper presents a theoretical model emphasising energy investments’ characteristics of uncertainty and irreversibility. The theoretical model suggests threshold effects. Firms are induced to substitute away from energy only if prices of energy exceed a certain threshold level and they...

This paper contributes to the empirical finance-growth literature by examining the relationship between financial depth, banking sector development, stock market development and economic growth in China. After an extensive survey on recent financial reforms in China, we apply Granger...

Recent contributions to growth theory stress the importance of localized innovation for the performance of more backward countries. In earlier papers, analyses by means of DEA techniques confirmed this intuition. In this paper, we extend this type of analysis by relaxing the macroeconomic...

This paper examines the dynamic linkages among financial markets in Thailand and Indonesia. In particular, we focus on the cross-border relationship in individual markets and on the relationship between finan- cial markets within each country. We find that while tight monetary policy pursued by...