Indicators of financial crisis generally do not have a good track record. This paper presents an early warning system for six countries in Asia, in which indicators do work.We distinguish three types of financial crises, currency crises, banking crises and debt crises, and extract four groups of...

This paper presents a theoretical model emphasising energy investments’ characteristics of uncertainty and irreversibility. The theoretical model suggests threshold effects. Firms are induced to substitute away from energy only if prices of energy exceed a certain threshold level and they...

Abstract This paper analyses the effect of rising wage rates and real interest rates on labour productivity and capital productivity in a situation of capital shortage. Furthermore, it shows the effect of rising wage rates and real interest rates on the capital intensity of the production...

We analyse the development of world records speed skating from 1893 to 2000 for both men and women. The historical data show that it is likely that the relation between skating speed and distance of the various events is non-linear and converges to a limit value. We pay special attention to...

This paper examines the dynamic linkages among financial markets in Thailand and Indonesia. In particular, we focus on the cross-border relationship in individual markets and on the relationship between finan- cial markets within each country. We find that while tight monetary policy pursued by...

We model the development of world records of metric running events from the 100 meter dash to the marathon for men and women. First, we review methods to fit time-series curves of world records in general. We discuss methods to estimate curves and review candidate functional forms that fit the...

The effectiveness of policies to reduce the use of energy depend on the elasticity of substitution between the various inputs and on the rate of technological progress. This paper presents a theoretical model emphasising energy investments\' characteristics of uncertainty and irreversibility...

This paper attempts to explain the growth of labour productivity by (inter)national spillovers from R&D and patenting. We develop a model that is tested for Germany, France, the United Kingdom and the United States of America using a new set of panel data for the period 1955 until 1991. The...

Indicators of financial crisis generally do not have a good track record. This paper presents an early warning system (EWS) for six countries in Asia in which indicators do work. Our binary choice model, which has been estimated for the period 1970:01?2001.12, has the following features. We...

In this paper we try to measure oil price uncertainty. The measure of uncertainty is based on the conditional standard deviations which are derived from univariate (G)ARCH models. The measure of uncertainty we choose is the within-year high-low range of the conditional standard deviations. It is...