We develop methods for robust Bayesian inference in structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) where the impulse responses or forecast error variance decompositions of interest are set-identified using external instruments (or 'proxy SVARs'). Existing Bayesian approaches to inference in proxy...

The goal of many randomized experiments and quasi-experimental studies in economics is to inform policies that aim to raise incomes and reduce economic inequality. A policy maximizing the sum of individual incomes may not be desirable if it magnifies economic inequality and post-treatment...

Uncertainty about the choice of identifying assumptions is common in causal studies, but is often ignored in empirical practice. This paper considers uncertainty over models that impose different identifying assumptions, which, in general, leads to a mix of point- and set-identified models. We...

We develop methods for robust Bayesian inference in structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) where the parameters of interest are set-identified using external instruments, or 'proxy SVARs'. Set-identification in these models typically occurs when there are multiple instruments for multiple...

Uncertainty about the choice of identifying assumptions is common in causal studies, but is often ignored in empirical practice. This paper considers uncertainty over models that impose different identifying assumptions, which, in general, leads to a mix of point- and set-identified models. We...

The goal of many randomized experiments and quasi-experimental studies in economics is to inform policies that aim to raise incomes and reduce economic inequality. A policy maximizing the sum of individual incomes may not be desirable if it magni fies economic inequality and post-treatment...

The employment effects of an ecological tax reform depend decisively on the presence of a profit tax and on the extent to which profits are taxed. This is shown in a model where firms have monopoly power on product markets and bargain over wages with unions on the labour market. In the setting,...

When we analyse the labour market consequences of labour tax reforms in a model of firm-union wage bargaining, minor changes in the formulation of the union's fallback option can have drastic effects. This paper compares two variants of the model in which either workers have no reemployment...

This paper develops a specification test for instrument validity in the heterogeneous treatment effect model with a binary treatment and a discrete instrument. The strongest testable implication for instrument validity is given by the condition for nonnegativity of point-identifiable complier's...

We propose a method for conducting inference on impulse responses in structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) when the impulse response is not point identified because the number of equality restrictions one can credibly impose is not sufficient for point identification and/or one imposes sign...