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The behaviour of betting and currency markets on the night of the EU referendum
Auld, Tom; Linton, Oliver - 2018
We study the behaviour of the Betfair betting market and the sterling/dollar exchange rate (futures price) during 24 June 2016, the night of the EU referendum. We investigate how the two markets responded to the announcement of the voting results. We employ a Bayesian updating methodology to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011775074
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Multi-step non- and semi-parametric predictive regressions for short and long horizon stock return prediction
Cheng, Tingting; Gao, Jiti; Linton, Oliver - 2018
nonstationary. We also establish the estimation theory and asymptotic properties for these models in the short horizon and long …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011775136
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Model comparisons in unstable environments
Giacomini, Raffaella; Rossi, Barbara - 2012
The goal of this paper is to develop formal tests to evaluate the relative in-sample performance of two competing, misspecified non-nested models in the presence of possible data instability. Compared to previous approaches to model selection, which are based on measures of global performance,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009554364
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The cross-quantilogram : measuring quantile dependence and testing directional predictability between time series
Han, Heejoon; Linton, Oliver; Oka, Tatsushi; Whang, Yoon-jae - 2014
This paper proposes the cross-quantilogram to measure the quantile dependence between two time series. We apply it to test the hypothesis that one time series has no directional predictability to another time series. We establish the asymptotic distribution of the cross quantilogram and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010245330
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Multivariate variance ratio statistics
Hong, Seok Young; Linton, Oliver; Zhang, Hui Jun - 2014
We propose several multivariate variance ratio statistics. We derive the asymptotic distribution of the statistics and scalar functions thereof under the null hypothesis that returns are unpredictable after a constant mean adjustment (i.e., under the Efficient Market Hypothesis). We do not...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010365211
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Mean Ratio Statistic for measuring predictability
Linton, Oliver; Smetanina, Katja - 2015
We propose an alternative Ratio Statistic for measuring predictability of stock prices. Our statistic is based on actual returns rather than logarithmic returns and is therefore better suited to capturing price predictability. It captures not only linear dependence in the same way as the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010481079
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An investigation into multivariate variance ratio statistics and their application to stock market predictability
Hong, Seok Young; Linton, Oliver; Zhang, Hui Jun - 2015
We propose several multivariate variance ratio statistics. We derive the asymptotic distribution of the statistics and scalar functions thereof under the null hypothesis that returns are unpredictable after a constant mean adjustment (i.e., under the weak form Efficient Market Hypothesis). We do...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010496122
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Nonparametric Euler equation identification and estimation
Escanciano, Juan Carlos; Hoderlein, Stefan; Lewbel, Arthur - 2015
We consider nonparametric identification and estimation of pricing kernels, or equivalently of marginal utility … estimation with the computation of a matrix eigenvector problem. Our estimator avoids the ill-posed inverse issues associated …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011341255
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A semiparametric model for heterogeneous panel data with fixed effects
Körber, Lena; Linton, Oliver; Vogt, Michael - 2013
This paper develops methodology for semiparametric panel data models in a setting where both the time series and the cross section are large. Such set tings are common in finance and other areas of economics. Our model allows for heterogeneous nonparametric covariate effects as well as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009692013
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Efficient estimation of conditional risk measures in a semiparametric GARCH model
Yan, Yang; Shang, Dajing; Linton, Oliver - 2012
when estimating error quantiles. In order to prevent this efficiency loss in quantile estimation, we propose a quantile …. At the same time, the efficiency gain in error quantile estimation hinges on the efficiency of estimators of the variance … parameters. We show that the same conclusion applies to the estimation of conditional Expected Shortfall. Our comparison also …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009620388