This paper develops a novel approach that leverages the information contained in expectations datasets to derive empirical measures of beliefs regarding economic shocks and their dynamic effects. Utilizing a panel of expectation revisions for a single variable across multiple horizons, we...

A two-step generalized method of moments estimation procedure can be made robust to heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation in the data by using a nonparametric estimator of the optimal weighting matrix. This paper addresses the issue of choosing the corresponding smoothing parameter (or...

In this paper, we study a nonparametric regression model including a periodic component, a smooth trend function, and a stochastic error term. We propose a procedure to estimate the unknown period and the function values of the periodic component as well as the nonparametric trend function. The...

We consider approximating a multivariate regression function by an affine combination of one-dimensional conditional component regression functions. The weight parameters involved in the approximation are estimated by least squares on the first-stage nonparametric kernel estimates. We establish...

A two-step estimation method of stochastic volatility models is proposed. In the first step, we nonparametrically estimate the (unobserved) instantaneous volatility process. In the second step, standard estimation methods for fully observed diffusion processes are employed, but with the...