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information. We explore a range of new forecasting approaches for the retail price of gasoline and compare their accuracy with the …
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Although oil price shocks have long been viewed as one of the leading candidates for explaining U.S. recessions, surprisingly little is known about the extent to which oil price shocks explain recessions. We provide the first formal analysis of this question with special attention to the...
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, including the question of whether financial market information helps forecast the real price of oil in physical markets. An …
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