, imagination and independence in children) to five different measures of religiosity, including beliefs and attendance. We control …

. Bayesian learning implies that beliefs about the likelihood of rare disasters drop to a much more pessimistic level once a … disaster has occurred. Such a shift in beliefs can trigger massive declines in price-dividend ratios. Pessimistic beliefs … between rational and adaptive Bayesian learning. Rational learners account for the possibility of future changes in beliefs in …

different beliefs about how policy choices will map into future economic outcomes. We show that when the incumbent party can …-serving behavior by political parties, but rather stems from their differing beliefs about the consequences of their actions. …

and treat correlated information as independent. In consequence, people’s beliefs are excessively sensitive to well …-connected information sources, implying a pattern of “overshooting” beliefs. Additionally, in an experimental asset market, correlation …

beliefs on the average propensity to trade of the other group. Since conflict disrupts trade, the onset of a conflict signals … that the aggressor has a low propensity to trade. Agents observe the history of conflicts and update their beliefs over … process whose frequency depends on the state of endogenous beliefs. Second, the probability of future conflicts increases …