Estimating the effect of trade on capital flows is difficult given the inherent identification problem. We use fluctuations in rainfall to capture the exogenous variation in trade between Germany, France, the U.K., and the Ottoman Empire during 1859-1913. The provisionistic policy of the Ottoman...

Recent events, historical evidence and geographical proximity suggest that the six EFTAns and twelve Central and East European countries (CEECs) are natural trading partners. This paper evaluates this suggestion by estimating the potential for EFTA-CEEC trade using the gravity model of Wang and...

The rapid increase in intra-industry trade (IIT) between the EU15 and Central, Eastern and South-Eastern European (CESEE) countries after the collapse of the Soviet Union indicates a structural change in the nature of trade in CESEE and a new process of transition and real convergence to the EU....

We develop a new analytical framework for both cross-border services trade and services trade through foreign affiliates, based on heterogeneous firms operating under oligopoly. This leads to direct predictions about choice of services delivery (mode of delivery) at the firm level, and about the...

The increased integration of the economies of Central and Eastern Europe with the European Union (EU) as the Europe Agreements are progressively implemented, is projected to have a significant impact on trade flows with Spain, as exports and imports grow very rapidly, albeit starting from a very...

Working with a panel dataset of of OECD countries over the decade 1994-2004, we examine linkages between cross-border trade and FDI in the service sectors. We first develop a consistent analytical framework for the application of the gravity model jointly to services trade and commercial...

We investigate how the export performance of firms in China is influenced by credit constraints. Using panel data from Chinese customs for 1997-2007, we show that credit constraints restrict international trade flows and affect the sectoral composition of firms’ activity. We confirm that...

Foreign exchange reserve accumulation has risen dramatically in recent years. The introduction of the euro, greater liquidity in other major currencies, and the rising current account deficits and external debt of the United States have increased the pressure on central banks to diversify away...

Cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As) have increased dramatically over the last two decades. This paper analyses the role of trade costs in explaining the increase in the number of cross-border mergers and acquisitions. In particular, we distinguish horizontal and non-horizontal M&As and...

It is common to observe that demand elasticities in trade equations for imports are implausibly large, and that they differ between countries. Both of these present us with problems, as they imply trade will rise without bound as a proportion of GDP. The research reported here looks for...