Berg, Andrew; Borensztein, Eduardo; Pattillo, Catherine A. - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2004
Since 1999, the IMF's staff has been tracking several early-warning-system (EWS) models of currency crisis. The results have been mixed. One of the long-horizon models has performed well relative to pure guesswork and to available non-model-based forecasts, such as agency ratings and private...