This paper analyses theoretically and empirically how employment subsidies should be targeted. We contrast measures involving targeting workers with low incomes/abilities and targeting the unemployed under the criteria of approximate welfare efficiency (AWE). Thereby we can identify policies...

We explore the far-reaching implications of replacing current unemployment benefit (UB)systems by an unemployment accounts (UA) system. Under the UA system, employed people are required to make ongoing contributions to their UAs and the balances in these accounts are available to them during...

This paper views movements in unemployment as the result of the interaction between: (a) lags in labour market decisions; and (b) labour market shocks with temporary and permanent components. Two features of unemployment dynamics are examined: (i) `unemployment persistence', arising when...

This paper evaluates two theories of unemployment: the natural rate theory (whereby unemployment is depicted as fluctuating around a reasonably stable natural rate) and the chain reaction theory (which views movements in unemployment as the outcome of the interplay between labour market shocks...

The aim of this paper is to analyze and estimate salient characteristics of unemployment dynamics. Movements in unemployment are viewed as "chain reactions" of responses to labor market shocks, working their way through systems of interacting lagged adjustment processes. In the context of...

This paper challenges what is the standard account of UK unemployment, namely that the major swings in unemployment over the past 25 years are due predominantly to movements in the underlying empirical “natural rate of unemployment” (NRU). Our analysis suggests that the British NRU has...

This paper explores the two common concepts of the natural rate of unemployment: (i) the stable, long-run equilibrium rate of unemployment; and (ii) the equilibrium unemployment rate at which there is no tendency for this rate to change, given the exogenous variables. The first concept (common...

This paper attempts to explain disparities among the unemployment experiences of different OECD countries in terms of the `fragility' of the short-run unemployment equilibrium (the impact of labour market shocks on the short-run unemployment rate) and the lag structure of the employment...

The paper explains how a country can fall into a 'low-skill, bad-job trap', in which workers acquire insufficient training and firms provide insufficient skilled vacancies. In particular, the paper argues that in countries where a large proportion of the workforce is unskilled, firms have little...