This paper provides a comprehensive evaluation of the short-horizon predictive ability of economic fundamentals and forward premia on monthly exchange rate returns in a framework that allows for volatility timing. We implement Bayesian methods for estimation and ranking of a set of empirical...

We use portfolio theory to quantify the efficiency of state-level sectoral patterns of production in the United States. On the basis of observed growth in sectoral value added output, we calculate for each state the efficient frontier for investments in the real economy, the efficient Sharpe...

We introduce the information microstructure of a canonical noisy rational expectations model (Hellwig, 1980) into the framework of a conventional real business cycle model. Each household receives a private signal about future productivity. In equilibrium, the stock price serves to aggregate and...

This paper measures the returns to investing in violins using two different datasets. One dataset includes 75 observations on repeat sales of the same violins at auction starting in the mid-19th century and another dataset includes over 2000 observations on individual violin sales at auction...

We use portfolio theory to quantify the efficiency of state-level sectoral patterns of production in the United States. On the basis of observed growth in sectoral value-added output, we calculate for each state the efficient frontier for investments in the real economy. We study how rapidly...

This study investigates return and asymmetric volatility spillovers and dynamic correlations between the main and small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) stock markets in Saudi Arabia and Egypt for the periods before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Return and volatility spillovers are modelled...

This paper aims at identifying a validated risk model for the cryptocurrency market. We propose a stochastic volatility model with co-jumps in return and volatility (SVCJ) to highlight the role of jumps in returns and volatility in affecting Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) in...

In the field of portfolio management, practitioners are focusing increasingly on risk-based portfolios rather than on mean-variance portfolios. Risk-based portfolios are constructed based solely on covariance matrices, and include methods such as minimum variance (MV), risk parity (RP), and...

We analyze a novel alpha momentum strategy that invests in stocks based on three-factor alphas which we estimate using daily returns. The empirical analysis for the U.S. and for Europe shows that (i) past alpha has power in predicting the cross-section of stock returns; (ii) alpha momentum...

This paper investigates the risk-return relations in Chinese equity markets. Based on a TARCH-M model, evidence shows that stock returns are positively correlated with predictable volatility, supporting the risk-return relation in both aggregate and sectoral markets. Evidence finds a positive...