This paper provides new estimates of a time-varying NAIRU for Germany taking account of the structural break caused by German unification using two alternative estimators, the Kalman-Filter and the partially linearmodel. Estimating a standard Phillips curve, the sumof coefficients associated...

This paper is devoted to a new estimation of the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) for the West German Economy 1980 to 1998. The novelty of the paper is the estimation of a time-varying NAIRU for West Germany employing the Kaiman method together with confidence intervals...

The Paper presents a model in which the exogenous money supply causes changes in the inflation rate and the output growth rate. While inflation and growth rate changes occur simultaneously, the inflation acts as a tax on the return to human capital and in this sense induces the growth rate...

In deciding a monetary policy stance, central bankers need to evaluate carefully the risks the current economic situation poses to price stability. We propose to regard the central banker as a risk manager who aims to contain inflation within pre-specified bounds. We develop formal tools of risk...

This paper develops a factor model for forecasting inflation in the euro area. The model can handle variables with different timeliness, sample size and frequency. We show that the forecasts based on the factor model outperform nai¨ve random walk forecasts, a hard to beat benchmark for euro...

While forecasting is a common practice in academia, government and business alike, practitioners are often left wondering how to choose the sample for estimating forecasting models. When we forecast inflation in 2014, for example, should we use the last 30 years of data or the last 10 years of...

Several authors have recently interpreted the ECB's two-pillar framework as separate approaches to forecast and analyse inflation at different time horizons or frequency bands. The ECB has publicly supported this understanding of the framework. This paper presents further evidence on the...