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An Equilibrium Model of 'Global Imbalances' and Low Interest Rates

Caballero, Ricardo; Farhi, Emmanuel; Gourinchas, … - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2006

Three of the most important recent facts in global macroeconomics - the sustained rise in the US current account deficit, the stubborn decline in long run real rates, and the rise in the share of US assets in global portfolio - appear as anomalies from the perspective of conventional wisdom and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666722

Corporate financial policies and performance around currency crises

Bris, Arturo; Koskinen, Yrjö; Pons, Vicente - 2001

Using data from 17 countries that have suffered a currency crisis, this paper studies firm-level leverage and performance measures before and after a crisis has occurred. We show that in the years preceding a currency crisis, companies that are expected to benefit from currency depreciations...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010281399

Properties of Foreign Exchange Risk Premiums

Sarno, Lucio; Schneider, Paul; Wagner, Christian - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011

We study the properties of foreign exchange risk premiums that can explain the forward bias puzzle, defined as the tendency of high-interest rate currencies to appreciate rather than depreciate. These risk premiums arise endogenously from the no-arbitrage condition relating the term structure of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009209825

130 years of fiscal vulnerabilities and currency crashes in advanced economies

Fratzscher, Marcel; Mehl, Arnaud; Vansteenkiste, Isabel - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011

This paper investigates the empirical link between fiscal vulnerabilities and currency crashes in advanced economies over the last 130 years, building on a new dataset of real effective exchange rates and fiscal balances for 21 countries since 1880. We find evidence that crashes depend more on...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009324258

The International Monetary System: Living with Asymmetry

Obstfeld, Maurice - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011

This paper analyzes current stresses in the two key areas that concerned the architects of the original Bretton Woods system: international liquidity and exchange rate management. Despite radical changes since World War II in the market context for liquidity and exchange rate concerns, they...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009385766

Can Oil Prices Forecast Exchange Rates?

Ferraro, Domenico; Rogoff, Kenneth; Rossi, Barbara - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011

This paper investigates whether oil prices have a reliable and stable out-of-sample relationship with the Canadian/U.S dollar nominal exchange rate. Despite state-of-the-art methodologies, we find little systematic relation between oil prices and the exchange rate at the monthly and quarterly...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009359490

Asset Prices, Exchange Rates and the Current Account

Fratzscher, Marcel; Juvenal, Luciana; Sarno, Lucio - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2009

of the US trade balance. It employs a Bayesian structural VAR model that requires imposing only a minimum of economically … current account in the past, accounting for up to 30% of the movements of the US trade balance at a horizon of 20 quarters. By … the US trade balance. Our findings suggest that large exchange rate movements may not necessarily be the key element of an …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008502576

The Macroeconomic Costs and Benefits of the EMU and other Monetary Unions: An Overview of Recent Research

Beetsma, Roel; Giuliodori, Massimo - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2009

discussion of monetary unification outside Europe. The cost-benefit trade-off of unification may differ substantially between …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008477181

Exchange Rate Forecasting, Order Flow and Macroeconomic Information

Rime, Dagfinn; Sarno, Lucio; Sojli, Elvira - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2009

This paper adds to the research efforts that aim to bridge the divide between macro and micro approaches to exchange rate economics by examining the linkages between exchange rate movements, order flow and expectations of macroeconomic variables. The basic hypothesis tested is that if order flow...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004972168

The Trilemma in History: Trade-offs Among Exchange Rates, Monetary Policies and Capital Mobility

Obstfeld, Maurice; Shambaugh, Jay C; Taylor, Alan M. - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2004

The exchange-rate regime is often seen as constrained by the monetary policy trilemma, which imposes a stark trade …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123496