We analyze the interaction of economic and political determinants of free trade agreements (FTA). In addition to … standard trade gains, FTAs can promote peaceful relations by offering a political forum and by increasing the opportunity cost … of conflicts that disrupt trade. If policy makers believe in such pacifying effects of FTAs, country-pairs with large …

trade of around 2 to 8%) but long lasting (around 7 years). We find however that the disruption effect is much larger for … African exporters as the fall in trade (relative to gravity) is at least 20% more than for other countries in the aftermath of … are hit more severely than manufacturing exports. We also provide evidence that African countries more dependent on trade …

market size, or government spending. We introduce trade costs and endogenous varieties in a two-country general … and differentiation costs also have higher GDP, but supply a larger array of goods at improved terms of trade. The sign of … the international welfare spillovers depends on terms of trade, but also on consumers’ taste for variety. Higher domestic …

This paper analyzes empirically the relationship between civil wars and international trade. We first show that trade … presence of two effects that trade can have on the risk of civil conflicts: it may act as a deterrent if trade gains are put at … risk during civil wars but it may also act as an insurance if international trade provides a substitute to internal trade …

This paper analyses theoretically and empirically the relationship between trade and war. We show that the intuition … that trade promotes peace is only partially true even in a model where trade is beneficial to all, war reduces trade and … probability of escalation is indeed lower for countries that trade more bilaterally because of the opportunity cost associated …