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Can Insider Power Affect Employment?
Diaz-Vazquez, Pilar; Snower, Dennis J. - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2002
Do firms reduce employment when their insiders (established, incumbent employees) claim higher wages? The conventional … answer in the theoretical literature is that insider power has no influence on employment, provided that the newly hired … firing in recessions, while leaving hiring in booms unchanged. Thereby insider power reduces average employment. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123530
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Endogenous Growth and Stochastic Trends
Fatás, Antonio - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1996
This paper shows that there exists a strong positive correlation between long-term growth rates and the persistence of output fluctuations in a cross section of countries. We argue that the traditional explanation of persistence, a real business cycles model with exogenous productivity shocks,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124049
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Managing Credit Bubbles
Martin, Alberto; Ventura, Jaume - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2014
We study a dynamic economy where credit is limited by insufficient collateral and, as a result, investment and output are too low. In this environment, changes in investor sentiment or market expectations can give rise to credit bubbles, that is, expansions in credit that are backed not by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084138
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When Credit Bites Back: Leverage, Business Cycles, and Crises
Jordà, Òscar; Schularick, Moritz; Taylor, Alan M. - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011
of the universe of over 200 recession episodes in 14 advanced countries between 1870 and 2008, we document two key facts …; and for both types of recession, more credit-intensive expansions tend to be followed by deeper recessions and slower …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009365001
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Financial Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization
Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem; Papaioannou, Elias; Peydró, … - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2009
Standard theory predicts that financial integration leads to a lower degree of business cycle synchronization. Surprisingly, cross-country studies find the opposite. Our contribution is to document the theoretically predicted negative effect of financial integration on business cycle...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005041098
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Business Cycle Dynamics under Rational Inattention
Mackowiak, Bartosz Adam; Wiederholt, Mirko - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2010
This paper develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with rational inattention. Households and decision-makers in firms have limited attention and decide how to allocate their attention. The paper studies the implications of rational inattention for business cycle dynamics. Impulse...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008468587
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Nowcasting, Business Cycle Dating and the Interpretation of New Information when Real-Time Data are Available
Lee, Kevin; Olekalns, Nils; Shields, Kalvinder K - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2009
A canonical model is described which reflects the real-time informational context of decision-making. Comparisons are drawn with ‘conventional’ models that incorrectly omit market-informed insights on future macroeconomic conditions and inappropriately incorporate information that was not...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008528535
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Inefficient employment decisions, entry costs, and the cost of fluctuations
Den Haan, Wouter; Sedlacek, Petr - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2009
Fluctuations in firms' revenues reduce firms' viability and are costly from a social welfare point of view even when agents are risk neutral if (i) the decision to continue operating a firm is not efficient at the margin so that fluctuations shorten firms' life expectancy (because they increase...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008528536
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The Diversity of Forecasts from Macroeconomic Models of the U.S. Economy
Wieland, Volker; Wolters, Maik H - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2010
This paper investigates the accuracy and heterogeneity of output growth and inflation forecasts during the current and the four preceding NBER-dated U.S. recessions. We generate forecasts from six different models of the U.S. economy and compare them to professional forecasts from the Federal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008530347
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Mitigating the Procyclicality of Basel II
Repullo, Rafael; Saurina, Jesús; Trucharte, Carlos - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2009
This paper compares alternative procedures to mitigate the procyclicality of the new risk-sensitive bank capital regulation (Basel II). We estimate a model of the probabilities of default (PDs) of Spanish firms during the period 1987-2008, and use the estimated PDs to compute the corresponding...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004973964