Similar Search Results

Real-Time Analysis of Oil Price Risks Using Forecast Scenarios

Baumeister, Christiane; Kilian, Lutz - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011

to these scenarios affect the upside and downside risks embodied in the baseline real-time oil price forecast. Such risk …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009385759

The Central Banker as a Risk Manager: Quantifying and Forecasting Inflation Risks

Kilian, Lutz; Manganelli, Simone - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2003

situation poses to price stability. We propose to regard the central banker as a risk manager who aims to contain inflation … within pre-specified bounds. We develop formal tools of risk management that may be used to quantify and forecast the risks … of failing to attain that objective. We illustrate the use of these risk measures in practice. First, we show how to …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123620

The Central Banker as a Risk Manager: Estimating the Federal Reserve's Preferences under Greenspan

Kilian, Lutz; Manganelli, Simone - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2007

Motivated by policy statements of central bankers, we propose to regard the central banker as a risk manager who aims … of risk management that may be used to quantify the risks of failing to attain that objective. Risk measures inherently … assumption of quadratic symmetric preferences, while being congruent with a risk management model. We show how the parameters of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791846

Israel: The Start-Up Nation, and its Threat from Within

Ben-David, Dan - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2012

Three main vantage points are brought together in this paper: (1) Israel’s relatively good economic performance in recent years – at least, in comparison with other Western countries that have still not emerged from the recession; (2) motivations for the wave of social protests that erupted...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084118

Convergence Clubs and Diverging Economies

Ben-David, Dan - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1994

This paper focuses on the question of income convergence among countries. While the methodology used to determine convergence differs from the common cross-sectional approach, it corroborates Baumol's finding of a convergence club among the world's wealthiest countries. It also shows that there...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005136469

Trade and Convergence Among Countries

Ben-David, Dan - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1995

This paper examines the relationship between trade and income convergence by focusing on groups of countries comprising major trade partners. The majority of these groups exhibited significant convergence. Furthermore, a comparison of the trade-based groups with different, randomly selected,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005497780

Slowdowns and Meltdowns: Post-war Growth Evidence from 74 Countries

Ben-David, Dan; Papell, David - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1995

Many countries, both industrialized and developing, appear to have experienced a slowdown in economic growth. We examine a large sample of countries and find that a majority exhibit a significant structural break in their post-war growth rates. In nearly all of these cases the break was followed...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005498062

The Great Wars, the Great Crash, and the Unit Root Hypothesis: Some New Evidence About An Old Stylized Fact

Ben-David, Dan; Papell, David - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1994

For decades, the prevailing sentiment among economists was that growth rates remain constant over the long run. Kaldor considered this to be one of the six important `stylized facts' that theory should address, and until the emergence of endogenous growth models, this was a fundamental feature...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005114489

Free Trade and Long-Run Growth

Ben-David, Dan; Loewy, Michael B - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1995

What is the impact of movement towards free trade on output? Can this impact permanently affect output levels, and more importantly, will it have an impact on steady-state growth rates? This paper provides empirical evidence showing how countries have exhibited substantial increases in their...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666425