to these scenarios affect the upside and downside risks embodied in the baseline real-time oil price forecast. Such risk …

situation poses to price stability. We propose to regard the central banker as a risk manager who aims to contain inflation … within pre-specified bounds. We develop formal tools of risk management that may be used to quantify and forecast the risks … of failing to attain that objective. We illustrate the use of these risk measures in practice. First, we show how to …

Motivated by policy statements of central bankers, we propose to regard the central banker as a risk manager who aims … of risk management that may be used to quantify the risks of failing to attain that objective. Risk measures inherently … assumption of quadratic symmetric preferences, while being congruent with a risk management model. We show how the parameters of …

aggregation problem introduces a bias into standard measures of firm productivity. We develop a theoretical model of heterogeneous …

increasing in firm productivity while the number of produced products that are exported is weakly increasing in firm productivity … the relationships between firm productivity and the numbers of exported products observed in the data, several demand and …