to these scenarios affect the upside and downside risks embodied in the baseline real-time oil price forecast. Such risk …

situation poses to price stability. We propose to regard the central banker as a risk manager who aims to contain inflation … within pre-specified bounds. We develop formal tools of risk management that may be used to quantify and forecast the risks … of failing to attain that objective. We illustrate the use of these risk measures in practice. First, we show how to …

Motivated by policy statements of central bankers, we propose to regard the central banker as a risk manager who aims … of risk management that may be used to quantify the risks of failing to attain that objective. Risk measures inherently … assumption of quadratic symmetric preferences, while being congruent with a risk management model. We show how the parameters of …

This Paper first documents the comparative productivity performance of the United States and Britain since 1870 … must be analysed if the major changes in comparative productivity performance among nations are to be understood fully; (2 … technological trends can lead to reversal of comparative productivity performance. …

overall production strategy and productivity trends. In the United States a strategy of standardized mass production led to … high levels of labour productivity and concentration on the development of managerial capabilities, but neglect of the …

unemployment this made sense. A bargaining model approach suggests, however, that this had a harmful impact on productivity growth …

Germany overtook Britain in comparative productivity levels for the whole economy primarily as a result of trends in … services rather than trends in industry. Britain’s productivity lead in services before World War II reflected external … economies of scale in a highly urbanised economy with an international orientation. Low productivity in Germany reflected the …