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Growth, Volatility and Political Instability: Non-Linear Time-Series Evidence for Argentina, 1896-2000

Campos, Nauro F; Karanasos, Menelaos - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2007

What is the relationship between economic growth and its volatility? Does political instability affect growth directly or indirectly, through volatility? This paper tries to answer such questions using a power-ARCH framework with annual time series data for Argentina from 1896 to 2000. We show...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005667076

Investment and Instability

Campos, Nauro F; Nugent, Jeffrey B - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2000

Although recent research has repeatedly found a negative association between investment and political instability, the existence and direction of causality between these two variables has not yet been investigated. This paper empirically tests for such a causal and negative long-run relationship...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791838

International Terrorism, Political Instability and the Escalation Effect

Campos, Nauro F; Gassebner, Martin - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2009

What are the main causes of international terrorism? The lessons from the surge of academic research that followed 9/11 remain elusive. The careful investigation of the relative roles of economic and political conditions did little to change the fact that existing econometric estimates diverge...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005029291

Who is Afraid of Political Instability?

Campos, Nauro F - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2000

An unstable macroeconomic environment is often regarded as detrimental to economic growth. Among the sources contributing to such instability, the literature has assigned most of the blame to political issues. This paper empirically tests for a causal and negative long-term relationship between...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504467

Two to Tangle: Financial Development, Political Instability and Economic Growth in Argentina (1896-2000)

Campos, Nauro F; Karanasos, Menelaos; Tan, Bin - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2008

This paper investigates the effects of financial development and political instability on economic growth in a power-ARCH framework with data for Argentina from 1896 to 2000. Our findings suggest that (i) informal or unanticipated political instability (e.g., guerrilla warfare) has a direct...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005114221

Civil Society, Institutional Change and the Politics of Reform: The Great Transition

Bruszt, László; Campos, Nauro F; Fidrmuc, Jan; … - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2010

Eastern European countries than in the former Soviet Union. Moreover, the frequency of government reaction, and the … the frequency and severity of government reaction help explain the choice of political regime after 1989/1991, the … concentration of power in the executive branch of government. The vibrancy of civil societies and their level of organization before …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008468689

Crises, What Crises?

Campos, Nauro F; Hsiao, Cheng; Nugent, Jeffrey B - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2006

Recent research convincingly shows that crises beget reform. Although the consensus is that economic crises foster macroeconomic stabilization, it is silent on which types of crises cause which types of reform. Is it economic or political crises that are the most important drivers of structural...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005136426

Earnings, Schooling and Economic Reform: New Econometric Evidence

Campos, Nauro F; Jolliffe, Dean - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2004

How does the relationship between earnings and schooling change with the introduction of comprehensive economic reform? This Paper uses a unique dataset (covering about 3 million Hungarian wage earners, from 1986 to 1998) and a novel procedure to correct sample selection bias (based on DiNardo,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005498066

Chinese Currency Controversies

Eichengreen, Barry - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2004

This Paper reviews the controversy over China’s exchange rate regime. Placing the issue in the context of the … literature on exit strategies, it argues that now is the best time for China to exit from its peg. Moving to a managed float …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005067647