to these scenarios affect the upside and downside risks embodied in the baseline real-time oil price forecast. Such risk …

situation poses to price stability. We propose to regard the central banker as a risk manager who aims to contain inflation … within pre-specified bounds. We develop formal tools of risk management that may be used to quantify and forecast the risks … of failing to attain that objective. We illustrate the use of these risk measures in practice. First, we show how to …

Motivated by policy statements of central bankers, we propose to regard the central banker as a risk manager who aims … of risk management that may be used to quantify the risks of failing to attain that objective. Risk measures inherently … assumption of quadratic symmetric preferences, while being congruent with a risk management model. We show how the parameters of …

productivity, ii) exporters charge on average higher markups and iii) firms’ markups increase (decrease) upon export entry (exit …). We see these findings as a first step in opening up the productivity-export black box, and provide a potential … explanation for the big measured productivity premia for firms entering export markets. …

total factor productivity (TFP) and static measures of capital misallocation within a country. Using data on 5 … time-series volatility of productivity are also characterized by greater cross-sectional dispersion in productivity …. Volatility in TFP explains one quarter to one third of cross-country productivity dispersion. We document a similar relationship …

Learning by exporting refers to the mechanism whereby firms improve their performance (productivity) after entering … from a large internal inconsistency: they rely on an exogenous evolving productivity process. I show how recent proxy … estimators can accommodate endogenous productivity processes such as learning by exporting. I rely on my framework to discuss the …

We measure the impact of a drastic new technology for producing steel, the minimill, on the aggregate productivity of U …'s productivity is linked to this new technology, and operates through two distinct mechanisms. First, minimills displaced the older … in the industry's productivity. Second, increased competition, due to the expansion of minimills, drove a substantial …

quantity and price information to disentangle markups from quantity-based productivity, and then compute marginal costs by …