to these scenarios affect the upside and downside risks embodied in the baseline real-time oil price forecast. Such risk …

Motivated by policy statements of central bankers, we propose to regard the central banker as a risk manager who aims … of risk management that may be used to quantify the risks of failing to attain that objective. Risk measures inherently … assumption of quadratic symmetric preferences, while being congruent with a risk management model. We show how the parameters of …

situation poses to price stability. We propose to regard the central banker as a risk manager who aims to contain inflation … within pre-specified bounds. We develop formal tools of risk management that may be used to quantify and forecast the risks … of failing to attain that objective. We illustrate the use of these risk measures in practice. First, we show how to …

inequality and raises unemployment, but expected welfare gains are ensured if workers are risk neutral. And while wage inequality …

knowledge' from its cumulative R&D activities, a developing country can boost its productivity by importing a larger variety of …

shaping welfare, trade flows, productivity, and unemployment. We show that both countries gain from trade but that the …

country can raise its total factor productivity by investing in R&D. Countries can also boost their productivity by trading …

cycles: during the first phase of each cycle output and productivity grow slowly or even decline, and it is only in the … second phase that growth starts in earnest. The historical record of productivity growth associated with electrification, and …

characteristics. The results suggest that institutional differences are important determinants of total factor productivity and that …