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Real-Time Analysis of Oil Price Risks Using Forecast Scenarios

Baumeister, Christiane; Kilian, Lutz - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011

to these scenarios affect the upside and downside risks embodied in the baseline real-time oil price forecast. Such risk …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009385759

The Central Banker as a Risk Manager: Quantifying and Forecasting Inflation Risks

Kilian, Lutz; Manganelli, Simone - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2003

situation poses to price stability. We propose to regard the central banker as a risk manager who aims to contain inflation … within pre-specified bounds. We develop formal tools of risk management that may be used to quantify and forecast the risks … of failing to attain that objective. We illustrate the use of these risk measures in practice. First, we show how to …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123620

The Central Banker as a Risk Manager: Estimating the Federal Reserve's Preferences under Greenspan

Kilian, Lutz; Manganelli, Simone - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2007

Motivated by policy statements of central bankers, we propose to regard the central banker as a risk manager who aims … of risk management that may be used to quantify the risks of failing to attain that objective. Risk measures inherently … assumption of quadratic symmetric preferences, while being congruent with a risk management model. We show how the parameters of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791846

Institutional Causes, Macroeconomic Symptoms: Volatility, Crises and Growth

Acemoglu, Daron; Johnson, Simon; Robinson, James A; … - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2002

Countries that have pursued distortionary macroeconomic policies, including high inflation, large budget deficits and misaligned exchange rates, appear to have suffered more macroeconomic volatility and also grown more slowly during the postwar period. Does this reflect the causal effect of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005136626

The Rise of Europe: Atlantic Trade, Institutional Change and Economic Growth

Acemoglu, Daron; Johnson, Simon; Robinson, James A - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2003

This Paper documents that the rise of (Western) Europe between 1500 and 1850 is largely accounted for by the growth of European nations with access to the Atlantic, and especially by those nations that engaged in colonialism and long distance oceanic trade. Moreover, Atlantic ports grew much...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005067437

Income and Democracy

Acemoglu, Daron; Johnson, Simon; Robinson, James A; … - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2005

We revisit one of the central empirical findings of the political economy literature that higher income per capita causes democracy. Existing studies establish a strong cross-country correlation between income and democracy, but do not typically control for factors that simultaneously affect...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666490

Reevaluating the Modernization Hypothesis

Acemoglu, Daron; Johnson, Simon; Robinson, James A; … - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2007

This paper revisits and critically re-evaluates the widely-accepted modernization hypothesis which claims that per capita income causes the creation and the consolidation of democracy. We argue that existing studies find support for this hypothesis because they fail to control for the presence...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005661513