to these scenarios affect the upside and downside risks embodied in the baseline real-time oil price forecast. Such risk …

situation poses to price stability. We propose to regard the central banker as a risk manager who aims to contain inflation … within pre-specified bounds. We develop formal tools of risk management that may be used to quantify and forecast the risks … of failing to attain that objective. We illustrate the use of these risk measures in practice. First, we show how to …

Motivated by policy statements of central bankers, we propose to regard the central banker as a risk manager who aims … of risk management that may be used to quantify the risks of failing to attain that objective. Risk measures inherently … assumption of quadratic symmetric preferences, while being congruent with a risk management model. We show how the parameters of …

probability to stop exporting during protection compared to unprotected firms. Finally, we find that the productivity of exporters …

indirect effects of foreign direct investment on measured firm level productivity depend on a number of firm specific features …

This paper estimates the effects of trade liberalization on plant productivity. In contrast to previous studies, we … distinguish between productivity gains arising from lower tariffs on final goods relative to those on intermediate inputs. Lower … output tariffs can produce productivity gains by inducing tougher import competition whereas cheaper imported inputs can …