to these scenarios affect the upside and downside risks embodied in the baseline real-time oil price forecast. Such risk …

Motivated by policy statements of central bankers, we propose to regard the central banker as a risk manager who aims … of risk management that may be used to quantify the risks of failing to attain that objective. Risk measures inherently … assumption of quadratic symmetric preferences, while being congruent with a risk management model. We show how the parameters of …

situation poses to price stability. We propose to regard the central banker as a risk manager who aims to contain inflation … within pre-specified bounds. We develop formal tools of risk management that may be used to quantify and forecast the risks … of failing to attain that objective. We illustrate the use of these risk measures in practice. First, we show how to …

productivity. We do so by developing a quantitative model with heterogeneous firms and international trade where firms can invest … cover the fixed costs of sourcing foreign inputs, which in turn also has a benign impact on measured productivity. Using …&D investment play a key role in explaining firm-level productivity growth. Moreover, the estimated returns to R&D are significantly …

productivity and restructuring. Unlike previous studies we are able to account for the heterogeneity across firms in their exposure … by increasing productivity. The RER shock was associated with substantial within-firm productivity gains for net … exporters; gains that seem to have come about partly through technological improvements. The productivity gains also appear to …