to these scenarios affect the upside and downside risks embodied in the baseline real-time oil price forecast. Such risk …

situation poses to price stability. We propose to regard the central banker as a risk manager who aims to contain inflation … within pre-specified bounds. We develop formal tools of risk management that may be used to quantify and forecast the risks … of failing to attain that objective. We illustrate the use of these risk measures in practice. First, we show how to …

Motivated by policy statements of central bankers, we propose to regard the central banker as a risk manager who aims … of risk management that may be used to quantify the risks of failing to attain that objective. Risk measures inherently … assumption of quadratic symmetric preferences, while being congruent with a risk management model. We show how the parameters of …

increase in the productivity and/or the supply of skilled relative to unskilled workers. These effects are stronger when hiring …

advantage of the possibility of intertemporal subsitution in order to engage in productivity-improving activities during … productivity, both in the short and long run, and the short-run impact is stronger in those countries where fluctuations are more …

perspective. It emphasizes the ‘opportunity cost’ approach, which states that firms will intertemporally substitute productivity …

knowledge sector is bounded, as productivity increases, the economy moves from a ‘Solovian zone’ where wages increase with … productivity, to a ‘Marxian’ zone where they paradoxically decline with productivity. This is because as consumption of a given … creativity is more unevenly distributed than productivity, technical progress always increases inequality. Redistribution from …