Showing 1 - 10 of 212
This paper reviews the problems that must be resolved at the Intergovernmental Conference in 1996 to clear the way for European Monetary Union: locking in Germany's commitment to the project, and reconciling EMU with variable geometry. It reviews what we know about the costs and benefits of EMU...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005792205
environment that captures the effects of interregional and intersectoral trade in propagating disaggregated productivity changes … pairwise interregional trade across all 50 U.S. states, 26 traded and non-traded industries, labor as a mobile factor, and … matches the U.S. input-output matrix. Using data on trade flows by industry between states, as well as other regional and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083376
The impact of exchange rate fluctuations on international trade has long been a major concern for policy-makers. This … is particularly the case in Europe, where countries trade extensively with each other. The crisis that began in the … Summer of 1992 generated increased exchange rate fluctuations and, therefore, renewed concerns about consequences for trade …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005136634
We develop a simple formal framework to clarify the trade-offs involved in the choice between a fixed and flexible … exports has meant that CFA member countries have suffered frequent shocks in their terms of trade. A flexible exchange rate …. Under `reasonable' output-inflation trade offs, these countries would have been better off having the flexibility to adjust …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123545
Two issues are discussed. The first is which countries might benefit from entry into EMU before the millennium. Germany and her immediate neighbours appear the most likely to gain; our knowledge is too uncertain to say whether all, some, or no countries would reap net economic benefits, however....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123644
The decline of the euro against the dollar during 1999-2000 was mostly unrelated to observable news about the underlying fundamentals. This corroborates a general finding from the empirical literature testing the traditional exchange rate models, i.e. that exchange rate movements are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123754
This paper provides a comprehensive evaluation of the short-horizon predictive ability of economic fundamentals and forward premia on monthly exchange rate returns in a framework that allows for volatility timing. We implement Bayesian methods for estimation and ranking of a set of empirical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123849
The paper empirically analyzes asymmetries in the EMS with special reference to their implication for the creation of a monetary union (EMU). Two types of asymmetries are analyzed: those in the form of "German dominance" are detected in the conduct of monetary policies in the EMS, in particular...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124043
The renewed quest for a European monetary union raises the question: Is Europe ready for a common currency? We compare the variability and persistence of real exchange rate fluctuations within the German monetary union and between Germany and eight European countries to assess the viability of a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124270
This paper provides empirical evidence on the effectiveness of movements in nominal exchange rates in smoothing cyclical imbalances between countries, as explained by the literature on optimal currency areas. We use restrictions from the Mundell-Flemming model (on which the theory of optimal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124317