observable predictors imperfectly deliver the conditional expected return. We decompose return variance into five components … negative contribution to long-horizon variance, it is more than offset by the other components. Using a predictive system, we … estimate annualized 30-year variance to be nearly 1.5 times the 1-year variance. …

We study the determination of Irish inflation between 1926 and 2012. The difference between unemployment and the NAIRU … is a significant determinant of inflation in a simple backward-looking Phillips Curve that incorporates import prices …

regimes that are nested within this framework: inflation, output-gap growth and nominal income growth targeting; and inflation …

We use evidence from the term structure of inflation expectations implicit in the nominal yields and survey forecasts … of inflation to address the question of whether or not monetary policy is effective. We construct a model that …-neutral, subjective, and objective probability measures. We extract private sector expectations of inflation from this model and establish …

of monetary policy. These models, based on the conventional view that inflation stabilization should be a concern of …-augmented Taylor rule can deliver recurrent mispredictions of inflation in the US before 1987. We then show that a fiscal feedback rule … the two rules predict the behaviour of inflation better than the one based just on the monetary policy rule. After 1987 …

central banks to control inflation within their borders, at least in the absence of coordination of policy with other central … the ability of monetary policy to control inflation: by making liquidity premia a function of 'global liquidity' rather … to control the dynamics of inflation. …

narrowed ahead of inflation divergence. Cross-country real interest rankings would then assume a negative correlation with the … corresponding inflation rankings. The paper argues that on theoretical grounds, a perverse correlation between real interest rates … and inflation can be predicted for `old EMS' conditions. Empirical evidence supports this prediction while failing to …

In this Paper we evaluate the role of a set of variables as leading indicators for Euro-area inflation and GDP growth …