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Business Cycle Sychronization in the Enlarged EU
Darvas, Zsolt; Szapáry, György - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2005
significant increase in synchronization of GDP and its major components within EMU. This lends support to the argument of OCA … diminished in the EMU members. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005792241
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Has the Euro changed the Business Cycle?
Enders, Zeno; Jung, Philip; Müller, Gernot - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2012
In contrast to the notion that the exchange-rate regime is non-neutral, there is little evidence that EMU has … EMU on standard business cycles statistics. However, further analysis reveals that the euro has changed the nature of the … shocks relatively less important in accounting for economic fluctuations under EMU. This explains why there is little change …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084347
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Beyond The Design Of Monetary Policy Alone: Fiscal Commitment, Macro Coordination, And Structural Adjustment
Begg, David - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2000
and adjustment commitments, and the possible role that EMU may play. Clearly, monetary commitment alone cannot accomplish … conditionality that might be welfare-improving for transition economies hoping to accede to EMU. The analysis also highlights the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791822
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Common Factors in Latin America’s Business Cycles
Aiolfi, Marco; Catão, Luis A. V.; Timmermann, Allan G - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2010
We develop a common factor approach to reconstruct new business cycle indices for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico ("LAC-4") from an unprecedentedly comprehensive dataset spanning 135 years. We establish the robustness of our indices through a variety of tests, use the indices to explore...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008468545
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How do Fiscal and Technology Shocks affect Real Exchange Rates? New Evidence for the United States
Enders, Zeno; Müller, Gernot; Scholl, Almuth - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2010
Using vector autoregressions on U.S. time series relative to an aggregate of industrialized countries, this paper provides new evidence on the dynamic effects of government spending and technology shocks on the real exchange rate and the terms of trade. To achieve identification, we derive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008468685
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International Business Cycles and the Dynamics of the Current Account
Elliott, Graham; Fatás, Antonio - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1995
This paper analyses the transmission of productivity shocks across countries and how the responses of investment and the current account differ depending on the degree of propagation of the shocks. We explore both issues by estimating a structural model for Japan, the United States and Europe....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123648
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The Intranational Business Cycle: Evidence from Japan
Artis, Michael J; Okubo, Toshihiro - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2008
Abstract: This paper studies the intranational business cycle - that is the set of regional (prefecture) business cycles - in Japan. One reason for choosing to examine the Japanese case is that long time series and relatively detailed data are available. A Hodrick-Prescott filter is applied to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123844
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Trade, Finance, Specialization and Synchronization
Imbs, Jean - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2003
I investigate the determinants of business cycles synchronization across regions. I use both international and intranational data to evaluate the linkages between trade in goods, trade in financial assets, specialization and business cycles synchronization in the context of a system of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123902
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Monetary Misconceptions: New and Old Paradigmata and Other Sad Tales
Buiter, Willem H. - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2000
Several recent studies imply that the response of national saving to fiscal policy is non-monotonic. In this paper, we use two data sets to search for the circumstances in which such non-monotonic responses arise: one refers to a sample of OECD countries, as in previous studies, and one to a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124252
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Co-Fluctuations
Imbs, Jean - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1999
This paper provides novel evidence on the determinants of the synchronization in business cycles. I find trade has surprisingly small quantitative effects. On the other hand, pairs of countries with higher aggregate income level experience significantly more synchronized business cycles, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005136558