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The Dynamic Effects of Personal and Corporate Income Tax Changes in the United States
Mertens, Karel; Ravn, Morten O - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011
This paper estimates the dynamic effects of changes in taxes in the United States. We distinguish between the effects of changes in personal and corporate income taxes using a new narrative account of federal tax liability changes in these two tax components. We develop an estimator in which...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009293981
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Understanding the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated Tax Policy Shocks
Mertens, Karel; Ravn, Morten O - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2009
We evaluate the extent to which a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model can account for the impact of "surprise" and "anticipated" tax shocks estimated from U.S. time-series data. In U.S. data, surprise tax cuts have expansionary and persistent effects on output, consumption, investment...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008477183
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Empirical Evidence on the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated U.S. Tax Policy Shocks
Mertens, Karel; Ravn, Morten O - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2009
We provide empirical evidence on the dynamic effects of tax liability changes in the United States. We distinguish between surprise and anticipated tax changes using a timing-convention. We document that pre-announced but not yet implemented tax cuts give rise to contractions in output,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005061480
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Measuring the Impact of Fiscal Policy in the Face of Anticipation: A Structural VAR Approach
Mertens, Karel; Ravn, Morten O - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2009
Empirical estimates of the impact of government spending shocks disagree on central issues such as the size of output multipliers and the responses of consumption and the real wage. One explanation for the disagreement is that fiscal shocks are often anticipated. Due to misspecification of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005068289
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The Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated U.S. Tax Policy Shocks: Theory and Empirical Evidence
Mertens, Karel; Ravn, Morten O - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2008
We provide empirical evidence on the effects of tax liability changes in the United States. We make a distinction between "surprise" and "anticipated" tax shocks. Surprise tax cuts give rise to a large boom in the economy. Anticipated tax liability tax cuts are instead associated with a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005497768
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A Reconciliation of SVAR and Narrative Estimates of Tax Multipliers
Mertens, Karel; Ravn, Morten O - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2012
Existing empirical estimates of US nationwide tax multipliers vary from close to zero to very large. Using narrative measures as proxies for structural shocks to total tax revenues in an SVAR, we estimate tax multipliers at the higher end of the range: around two on impact and up to three after...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083694
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Counter-Inflationary Policy in the Framework of the EMS
Artis, Michael J - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1992
narrowed ahead of inflation divergence. Cross-country real interest rankings would then assume a negative correlation with the … corresponding inflation rankings. The paper argues that on theoretical grounds, a perverse correlation between real interest rates … and inflation can be predicted for `old EMS' conditions. Empirical evidence supports this prediction while failing to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005662333
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The Case For Temporary Inflation in the Eurozone
Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie; Uribe, Martín - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2012
employment in peripheral Europe could be restored by raising the Euro-area annual rate of inflation to about 4 percent for the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083976
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On the International Dimension of Fiscal Policy
Benigno, Gianluca; De Paoli, Bianca - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2009
idiosyncratic shocks. Even when prices are flexible and inflation can costlessly act as a shock absorber to restore fiscal …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666758
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Habit Formation and Fiscal Transmission in Open Economies
Cardi, Olivier; Müller, Gernot - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2010
In this paper we analyze the ability of an open economy version of the neoclassical model to account for the time-series evidence on fiscal policy transmission. In a first step, we identify government spending shocks within a vector autoregression model. We find that i) government spending...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008684676