show that country specific indicators play a much smaller role. We detect differences across business cycle phases but …

for forecasting GDP growth at short-term horizons in the euro area. We discuss three sets of empirical results. First we … forecast revisions. Third we design a pseudo out of sample forecasting exercise and examine point and density forecast accuracy …

index and to evaluate the role of financial variables in forecasting. We considered two models which allow forecasting based … univariate methods for forecasting inflation at one, three, six, and twelve months and industrial production at one and three … months. We find that financial variables do help forecasting inflation, but do not help forecasting industrial production. …

combine the best forecasting tools with the possibility of incorporating their own judgement. In this context, we provide …

parameters. When the forecasting model admits only normally-distributed outcomes, we find small, acyclical changes in uncertainty …

forecasting structure to time series models and their forward-looking dynamics, which consists of expected values of future … their forecasting ability. …