High interest rates to defend the exchange rate signal that a government is committed to fixed exchange rates, but may also signal weak fundamentals. We test the effectiveness of the interest rate defense by disaggregating into the effects on future interest rates differentials, expectations of...

This paper provides evidence on the effects of capital controls. We show that controls have been associated with significant differences in macroeconomic behaviour, especially in monetary policy. While they have not prevented speculative attacks, they have provided the breathing space needed to...

The assumption of constant returns in the matching function, embodied in most bilateral search models, is crucial to ensure the uniqueness of the unemployment rate along a steady state growth path. This paper explores whether this is an acceptable assumption by estimating individual...

During the European exchange market turmoil in 1992-3 it was evident that speculative attacks tended to spread across currencies. Using a two-country version of the model developed by Flood and Garber (1984) we show how a speculative attack against one currency may accelerate the `warranted'...

This Paper explores the implications of different strategies for financing the fiscal costs of twin crises in inflation and depreciation rates. We use a first-generation type model of speculative attacks which has four key features: (i) the crisis is triggered by prospective deficits: (ii) there...

This Paper addresses two questions: (i) how do governments actually pay for the fiscal costs associated with currency crises; and (ii) what are the implications of different financing methods for post-crisis rates of inflation and depreciation? We study these questions using a general...

This paper proposes a theory of twin banking-currency crises in which both fundamentals and self-fulfilling beliefs play crucial roles. Fundamentals determine whether crises will occur. Self-fulfilling beliefs determine when they occur. The fundamental that causes ‘twin crises’ is government...

This paper argues that the recent Southeast Asian currency crises was caused by large prospective deficits associated with implicit bailout guarantees to failing banking systems. We articulate this view using a simple dynamic general equilibrium model whose key feature is that a speculative...

Existing models of exchange rate crises do not provide a good explanation for the breakdown of the ERM in 1992<196>3. This paper presents an alternative model which captures some of the important features of that period. The switch from a fixed to a floating rate is triggered by an optimizing...</196>

The provision of liquidity by international institutions such as the IMF to countries experiencing balance of payment problems could prevent liquidity runs but could also cause moral hazard distortions: expecting to be bailed out by the IMF, debtor countries would have weak incentives to...