In this paper we investigate the role of credit institutions in transmitting monetary shocks to the domestic economy and to the output of the rest of the world. In modelling the monetary and financial sector of the economy we distinguish between monetary injections that take place via lump-sum...

This paper analyses Krugman's contention that there is a `gold standard paradox' in the speculative attack literature. The paradox occurs if a country's currency appreciates after it runs out of gold or equivalently if a speculative attack can happen only after the country `naturally' runs out...

This paper addresses two questions: (1) Is a twelve-country monetary union in Europe feasible? (2) Can monetary union be achieved in stages, i.e. with an initial group of countries going first, and later admitting the others? After examining several politico-economic arguments concerning...

This paper studies how the creation of a European Central Bank (ECB) will change the political economy of monetary policy in Europe. The 12 governors of the EC member countries national central banks of the EEC have recently proposed a statute which delineates the institutional structure of the...

This paper studies the institutional and political determinants of capital controls in a sample of 20 OECD countries for the period 1950<196>89. One of the most interesting results is that capital controls are more likely to be imposed by strong governments, which have a relatively `free' hand over...</196>

A common argument against either a monetary union or a regime of fixed exchange rates is that they preclude flexible use of the inflation tax. We address this point of view by comparing three alternative exchange rate regimes: a pure float, an EMS regime in which the exchange rate is fixed but...

The purpose of this paper is to test for evidence of opportunistic `political business cycles' in a large sample of 18 OECD economies. Our results can be summarized as follows. First, we find very little evidence of pre-electoral effects of economic outcomes, in particular, on GDP growth and...

In this paper we evaluate internationally agreed limits on public sector debt and deficits, such as those agreed by the EC countries in the Treaty of Maastricht as preconditions for membership in a monetary union. These fiscal convergence criteria require that general government budget deficits...

The provision of liquidity by international institutions such as the IMF to countries experiencing balance of payment problems could prevent liquidity runs but could also cause moral hazard distortions: expecting to be bailed out by the IMF, debtor countries would have weak incentives to...

This paper studies whether the dynamic behaviour of GNP growth, unemployment and inflation is systematically affected by the timing of elections and changes of government. The sample includes the last three decades in 18 OECD economies. We test explicitly the implications of several models of...