variables. Hence, both the fiscal and the monetary authorities have developed aggregate forecasting models, along the lines … over-fit in sample, we assess their performance in a real time forecasting framework. It turns out that for several … forecasting and modeling EMU variables. …

macroeconomic variables for the countries in the Euro area, using a real-time forecasting methodology. It turns out that linear … the remaining 30% of the series. The gains in forecasting accuracy from the choice of the best model can be substantial … battery of tests, detecting non-constancy in about 20-30% of the time series. For these variables the forecasting performance …

pick up the best, on the basis of their past forecasting performance. As an alternative, the forecasts can be combined to … dataset of about 500 macroeconomic variables for the countries in the European Monetary Union. In this case the forecasting …

sample forecasting performance. We consider a large variety of models and evaluation criteria, using real time data and a …

The debate on the forecasting ability of non-linear models has a long history, and the Great Recession episode provides … us with an interesting opportunity for a reassessment of the forecasting performance of several classes of non …

We address some of the key questions that arise in forecasting the price of crude oil. What do applied forecasters need … in forecasting the price of oil? How useful are survey forecasts? How does one evaluate the sensitivity of a baseline oil …

We propose a new approach to forecasting the term structure of interest rates, which allows to efficiently extract the … forecasting performance of our proposed model relative to most of the existing alternative specifications. While most of the … and useful for forecasting. …