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Real-Time Model Uncertainty in the United States: the Fed from 1996-2003

Ironside, Brian; Tetlow, Robert J. - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2005

We study 30 vintages of FRB/US, the principal macro model used by the Federal Reserve Board staff for forecasting and policy analysis. To do this, we exploit archives of the model code, coefficients, baseline databases and stochastic shock sets stored after each FOMC meeting from the model’s...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005662266

Bargaining and Sustainability: The Argentine Debt Swap of 2005

Dhillon, Amrita; García-Fronti, Javier; Ghosal, Sayantan; … - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2005

When Argentine sovereign default in December 2001 led to a collapse of the peso, the burden of dollar debt became demonstrably unsustainable. But it was not clear what restructuring was feasible, nor when. Eventually, in 2005 after a delay of more than three years, a supermajority of creditors...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504331

Debt and Deficit Ceilings, and Sustainability of Fiscal Policies: An Intertemporal Analysis

Uctum, Merih; Wickens, Michael R. - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1997

This paper examines the consequences for the sustainability of fiscal policy of imposing restrictive ceilings on …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791703

The Distributional Consequences of Russia's Transition

Doyle, Christopher - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1993

rise in income inequality. Poverty has increased sharply with an estimated 18.5% of the population on incomes below the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005498039

Gender, Poverty and the Intra-household Distribution of Resources

Findlay, Ronald; Wright, Robert E - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1994

resources in the analysis of poverty. Most empirical studies of poverty, however, assume an equal sharing of resources between …, only limited attention has been directed towards addressing how sharing assumptions can be incorporated into poverty … female adults and between adults and children affects the incidence and intensity of poverty. The method is consistent with …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504217

Tackling Social Exclusion: Evidence from Chile

Carneiro, Pedro; Galasso, Emanuela; Ginja, Rita - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2014

extreme poverty, with guaranteed access to social services. Program impacts are identified using a regression discontinuity …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083507

What is the Domain of the Welfare State?

Snower, Dennis J. - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1994

The paper examines the appropriate domain of the Welfare State by exploring the areas in which free enterprise fails to provide adequate welfare state services. The paper outlines a simple coherent strategy for formulating government welfare state policy by identifying the relevant market...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005788942

Optimal Monetary Policy using a VAR

Polito, Vito; Wickens, Michael R. - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2008

In this paper we propose a new way to formulate optimal policy based on a quadratic intertemporal welfare function where the dynamic constraint is based on a VAR model of the economy which we call the PVAR method. We argue that the VAR under control should not be derived simply by replacing the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005497823

Identifying the Global Transmission of the 2007-09 Financial Crisis in a GVAR Model

Chudik, Alexander; Fratzscher, Marcel - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2010

The paper analyses and compares the role that the tightening in liquidity conditions and the collapse in risk appetite played for the global transmission of the financial crisis. Dealing with identification and the large dimensionality of the empirical exercise with a Global VAR approach, the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008692308

Estimating Macroeconomic Models: A Likelihood Approach

Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús; Rubio-Ramírez, Juan … - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2006

This paper shows how particle filtering allows us to undertake likelihood-based inference in dynamic macroeconomic models. The models can be nonlinear and/or non-normal. We describe how to use the output from the particle filter to estimate the structural parameters of the model, those...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504323

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