northwestern parts. In the advanced parts of India and China, grain wages were comparable to those in northwestern Europe, but … silver wages, which conferred purchasing power over tradable goods and services, were substantially lower. The high silver … wages of northwestern Europe were not simply a monetary phenomenon, but reflected high productivity in the tradable sector …

The study analyses the characteristics of professional exchange rate forecasts for the €/US$ rate. The results indicate … that the quality of forecasts produced by professional economists is rather poor and incompatible with the rational … expectations hypothesis. This dismal result is according to our analysis attributed to the fact that professional forecasts are to …

performance of factor models. We complement the analysis with an empirical evaluation of forecasts for the key macroeconomic … factor-based forecasts in short samples with structural change. …

how published forecasts can be used and we derive a measure of fiscal pressure suitable for the medium term. We find that …

question is whether such rules-of-thumb should draw on policymakers' forecasts of key variables such as inflation and …