Using quarterly data from 1970-1987 we estimate a simple econometric model in which inflation and the money supply are jointly determined and in which expectations of inflation are rational, or forward-looking. The model is estimated using the recently developed `cointegration' principle in...

We use annual data drawn from 1950-85 to estimate an econometric model of the money multiplier for the United Kingdom. We define the money multiplier as ratio of the money stock broadly defined (M3) and the monetary base (M0), and then decompose the multiplier into the currency ratio, the time...

A theoretical model of collective wage bargaining is developed in which unions set wages and employers decide employment. A novel feature of the model is that the conventional expected utility calculus is replaced by one in which regret from failed wage bargains and jubilation from successful...

Using data from the 1981 Family Expenditure Survey we estimate a logit model for the choice between unemployment and employment, using explanatory variables such as tax and social security benefit rates. Other variables represent the characteristics of the households in the survey and...

We estimate an aggregate econometric model of the industrial economies using annual data drawn from the postwar period. The model includes equations for GDP, inflation, interest rates and non-oil commodity prices. GDP and inflation reflect the evolution of aggregate supply and demand while...

In Centre for Economic Policy Research Discussion Paper Nos. 164 and 165 I presented econometric models of the industrialized countries (North) and the oil-importing developing countries (South). This paper links the two models so that the economic interdependence between North and South can be...

United Kingdom investment is explained in terms of the international diffusion of technology, where the United States is assumed to be a technological leader and the United Kingdom a technological laggard. The gap between United Kingdom and United States capital-labor ratios is decomposed into...

Attention is focused on the implications of the Union Bargaining Model (UBM) for the factorial distribution of income. It is shown that when the contract curve is given, greater union bargaining power raises the wage share. We argue, however, that the factors that strengthen the bargaining power...

Layard, Metcalf and Nickell have formed annual estimates of the union mark-up for unskilled males in the United Kingdom manufacturing sector over the period 1951-1983. We critically assess their estimates as an index of union power and propose a number of hypotheses that determine the union...

Lobby groups press for various administrative concessions which are granted at the expense of the rest of society. This paper tries to explain why sometimes the rest of society does not prevent the lobbies from exploiting them while at other times it protests against the injustice. It also...