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The Central Banker as a Risk Manager: Quantifying and Forecasting Inflation Risks
Kilian, Lutz; Manganelli, Simone - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2003
In deciding a monetary policy stance, central bankers need to evaluate carefully the risks the current economic situation poses to price stability. We propose to regard the central banker as a risk manager who aims to contain inflation within pre-specified bounds. We develop formal tools of risk...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123620
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Price Stability and Monetary Policy Effectiveness when Nominal Interest Rates are Bounded at Zero
Coenen, Günter; Orphanides, Athanasios; Wieland, Volker - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2003
This Paper employs stochastic simulations of a small structural rational expectations model to investigate the consequences of the zero bound on nominal interest rates. We find that if the economy is subject to stochastic shocks similar in magnitude to those experienced in the US over the 1980s...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123657
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Optimal Central Bank Transparency
Eijffinger, Sylvester C W; Hoogduin, Lex; Cruijsen, … - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2008
Should central banks increase their degree of transparency any further? We show that there is likely to be an optimal … intermediate degree of central bank transparency. Up to this optimum more transparency is desirable: it improves the quality of … resulting in higher inflation persistence. By using a panel data set on the transparency of 100 central banks we find empirical …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005662239
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The Economic Impact of Central Bank Transparency: A Survey
Eijffinger, Sylvester C W; Cruijsen, Carin A B van der - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2007
We provide an up-to-date overview of the literature on the desirability of central bank transparency from an economic … viewpoint. Since the move towards more transparency, a lot of research on its effects has been carried out. First, we show how …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666931
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The Timing of Monetary Policy Shocks
Olivei, Giovanni; Tenreyro, Silvana - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2006
A vast empirical literature has documented delayed and persistent effects of monetary policy shocks on output. We show that this finding results from the aggregation of output impulse responses that differ sharply depending on the timing of the shock: When the monetary policy shock takes place...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005789206
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The Central Banker as a Risk Manager: Estimating the Federal Reserve's Preferences under Greenspan
Kilian, Lutz; Manganelli, Simone - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2007
Motivated by policy statements of central bankers, we propose to regard the central banker as a risk manager who aims at containing inflation and the deviation of output from potential within pre-specified bounds. We develop formal tools of risk management that may be used to quantify the risks...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791846
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A Quantitative Exploration of the Opportunistic Approach to Disinflation
Aksoy, Yunus; Orphanides, Athanasios; Small, David; … - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2003
This Paper explores the quantitative implications of an approach to monetary policy that gained prominence in the United States during the 1990s. Proponents of this approach recommend that, when inflation is moderate but still above the long-run objective, the central bank should not move...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123544
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The Roles of Monetary Policy in the Process of Economic Reform in Eastern Europe
Bofinger, Peter - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1990
The first part of the paper analyzes the inflationary risks associated with price liberalization, the welfare costs of inflation and the difficulties of East European central banks in pursuing non-inflationary policies. The main obstacles are the low credibility of stabilization policies and a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123602
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Will EMU Increase Eurosclerosis?
Bentolila, Samuel; Saint-Paul, Gilles - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2000
In this paper we study the relationship between labour market institutions and monetary policy. We use a simple macroeconomic framework to show how optimal monetary policy rules depend on labour institutions (labour adjustment costs, and nominal and real wage rigidity) and social preferences...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124134
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Monetary Misconceptions: New and Old Paradigmata and Other Sad Tales
Buiter, Willem H. - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2000
Several recent studies imply that the response of national saving to fiscal policy is non-monotonic. In this paper, we use two data sets to search for the circumstances in which such non-monotonic responses arise: one refers to a sample of OECD countries, as in previous studies, and one to a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124252