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Real-Time Model Uncertainty in the United States: the Fed from 1996-2003
Ironside, Brian; Tetlow, Robert J. - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2005
We study 30 vintages of FRB/US, the principal macro model used by the Federal Reserve Board staff for forecasting and policy analysis. To do this, we exploit archives of the model code, coefficients, baseline databases and stochastic shock sets stored after each FOMC meeting from the model’s...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005662266
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Optimal Monetary Policy using a VAR
Polito, Vito; Wickens, Michael R. - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2008
In this paper we propose a new way to formulate optimal policy based on a quadratic intertemporal welfare function where the dynamic constraint is based on a VAR model of the economy which we call the PVAR method. We argue that the VAR under control should not be derived simply by replacing the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005497823
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On the Many Kinds of Growth
Eckstein, Zvi; Foulides, Costas; Kollintzas, Tryphon - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1991
equilibrium model. Endogenous growth can be engendered by internal constant returns to scale or by external increasing returns to … for a recursive competitive equilibrium. We show how the different sources of growth combine to generate a plethora of … the social optimum as a recursive competitive equilibrium. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005789086
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Balanced Budget Rules and Aggregate Instability: The Role of Consumption Taxes
Giannitsarou, Chryssi - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2006
It is known that, in the context of a real business cycle model with constant returns to scale and a balanced budget fiscal policy rule, steady state indeterminacy may arise as a result of endogenous labor income tax rates. In this paper, it is shown that when the government finances its...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005792344
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Optimal Target Criteria for Stabilization Policy
Giannoni, Marc; Woodford, Michael - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2010
) consistent with the model's structural equations, (ii) strong enough to imply a unique equilibrium, and (iii) optimal, in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008468673
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The Structure of Simple 'New Economic Geography' Models
Robert-Nicoud, Frédéric - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2004
This paper shows that the mathematical structure of the most widely used New Economic Geography models is the same, irrespective of the underlying agglomeration mechanism assumed (factor migration, input-output linkages, endogenous capital accumulation). This enables us to provide analytical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005114389
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MODELLING TIME AND MACROECONOMIC DYNAMICS
Anagnostopoulos, Alexis; Giannitsarou, Chryssi - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2010
the implications of this difference for macroeconomic modelling. We construct a generic dynamic general equilibrium model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008684671
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Learning as a Rational Foundation for Macroeconomics and Finance
Evans, George W.; Honkapohja, Seppo - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011
-level targeting to achieve learning-stability of the optimal RE equilibrium and whether under learning price-level targeting can rule …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009003380
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Aggregate Comparative Statics
Acemoglu, Daron; Jensen, Martin Kaae - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2009
In aggregative games, each player's payoff depends on her own actions and an aggregate of the actions of all the players (for example, sum, product or some moment of the distribution of actions). Many common games in industrial organization, political economy, public economics, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005067446
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On the Indeterminacy of Determinacy and Indeterminacy
Beyer, Andreas; Farmer, Roger E A - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2003
A number of authors have attempted to test whether the US economy is in a determinate or an indeterminate equilibrium … provide examples of two economic models. Model 1 displays an indeterminate equilibrium, driven by sunspots. Model 2 displays a … determinate equilibrium driven by fundamentals. Both models have the same likelihood function and are therefore observationally …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666730