Showing 1 - 10 of 28
In this paper we propose a new way to formulate optimal policy based on a quadratic intertemporal welfare function where the dynamic constraint is based on a VAR model of the economy which we call the PVAR method. We argue that the VAR under control should not be derived simply by replacing the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005497823
We study 30 vintages of FRB/US, the principal macro model used by the Federal Reserve Board staff for forecasting and policy analysis. To do this, we exploit archives of the model code, coefficients, baseline databases and stochastic shock sets stored after each FOMC meeting from the model’s...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005662266
This paper develops a theory of regular Markov perfect equilibria in dynamic stochastic games. We show that almost all dynamic stochastic games have a finite number of locally isolated Markov perfect equilibria that are all regular. These equilibria are essential and strongly stable. Moreover,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005497794
Forward-looking RE models such as the popular New Keynesian (NK) model do not provide a unique prediction about how the model economy behaves. We need some mechanism that ensures determinacy. McCallum (2011) says it is not needed because models are learnable only with the determinate solution...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083805
We study the competitive equilibrium of a market for votes where voters can trade votes for a numeraire before making a … sufficient condition guaranteeing the existence of an ex ante equilibrium. In equilibrium, only the most intense voter on each …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084259
tractable and unique equilibrium, and is therefore useful for empirical testing. Second, the resulting equilibrium gives rise to … an efficient allocation of resources. Third, the equilibrium is characterized by a job ladder, where unemployed workers …. Finally, the equilibrium offers different implications for the dynamics of job-to-job transitions than existing models of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084581
In aggregative games, each player's payoff depends on her own actions and an aggregate of the actions of all the players (for example, sum, product or some moment of the distribution of actions). Many common games in industrial organization, political economy, public economics, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005067446
unemployment) in which equilibrium selection is not conditioned on a sunspot variable. Instead, large temporary shocks initiate … the high-unemployment regime was the unique equilibrium outcome. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005656314
Rational expectations are often used as a strong argument against policy activism, as they may undermine or neutralize the policymaker’s actions. Although this sometimes happens, rational expectations do not always imply policy invariance or ineffectiveness. In fact, in certain circumstances...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005661866
A number of authors have attempted to test whether the US economy is in a determinate or an indeterminate equilibrium … provide examples of two economic models. Model 1 displays an indeterminate equilibrium, driven by sunspots. Model 2 displays a … determinate equilibrium driven by fundamentals. Both models have the same likelihood function and are therefore observationally …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666730