The tradition in discussions of stabilization is to assume that fiscal austerity, competitive real exchange rates, sound financial markets and deregulation provide the preconditions for a resumption of growth. There is, however, a need to distinguish the necessary and the sufficient conditions....

This paper discusses a number of issues that the newly constituted board of the European Central Bank (ECB) will face early on. We show how conducting a European monetary policy is very different from living under the protective umbrella of the Bundesbank. We discuss voting on the ECB board, and...

When governments attempt stabilization why do they not undertake a programme certain to succeed? The paper discusses credibility when it is inconceivable that a programme will succeed with probability one. A cost-benefit analysis establishes an equilibrium programme that has some ex ante...

The monetary overhang, pervasive with price controls and shortages in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union, offers close parallels to the post-1945 picture of Europe. At that time monetary reform was used in many countries, in one form or another, to bring liquid assets in line with the...

In early 1990, Argentina, Brazil, Peru, Yugoslavia and Poland were experiencing extreme instability or, at least, the early stages of stabilization. Other countries, like Bolivia, had already run the course and stabilized or, like Mexico, had avoided the extreme experience and opted for...

This paper investigates the roles played by the global macroeconomic environment and by Brazilian policy in shaping the Brazilian debt crisis, and assesses the prospects for Brazil's sovereign debt after five years of the `muddling-through' strategy. We first examine Brazilian debt from a...

The paper investigates four challenges to exchange rate stability in the coming years and explores their implications for macroeconomic and exchange rate policy. The first section explores the importance of seigniorage in financing the government budget in Southern European countries. The second...

This paper surveys the performance of international capital markets and the literature on measuring international capital mobility. Three main functions of a globally integrated and efficient world capital market provide focal points for the analysis. First, asset-price arbitrage ensures that...

This paper analyses the constraints European Union law places on the 1 January 1999 choices of irrevocably fixed conversion rates between the euro and the currencies of EMU members states. Current EU legislation, notably the Maastricht Treaty, requires that the bilateral currency conversion...

Simple techniques of regulated Brownian motion are used to analyse the behaviour of the exchange rate when official policy reaction functions are subject to future stochastic changes. We examine exchange rate dynamics in cases where the authorities promise (i) to confine a floating rate within a...