I develop a toolbox to analyze the properties of multivariate Markov-switching models. I first derive analytical formulas for the evolution of first and second moments, taking into account the possibility of regime changes. The formulas are then used to characterize the evolution of expectations...

Forward interest rates have become popular indicators of inflation expectations. The usefulness of this indicator depends on the relative volatility and the correlation of inflation expectations and expected real interest rates. This paper studies US and UK data, using a range of different tools...

A measure of the credibility of monetary policy is the inflation risk premium embodied in nominal yields. This will be time varying and can be estimated by combining the information contained in the nominal term structure of interest rates with that in the real term structure of...

This article complements the structural New-Keynesian macro framework with a no-arbitrage affine term structure model. Whereas our methodology is general, we focus on an extended macro-model with unobservable processes for the inflation target and the natural rate of output which are filtered...

Recent empirical literature documents that unexpected changes in the nominal interest rates have a significant effect on stock prices: a 25-basis point increase in the Fed funds rate is associated with an immediate decrease in broad stock indices that may range from 0.5 to 2.3 percent, followed...

In traditional Keynesian and neoclassical models, the transmission of product demand changes to the labour market generally involves wage-price sluggishness or counter-cyclical real wage movements. In practice, however, real wages are often acyclical or procyclical, and wages and prices are...

This paper is a reflective survey of past and recent econometric work on the growth of firms. Most of this work suggests that firm size follows a random walk; i.e. that corporate growth rates are random. The survey documents this, and shows what a strong result this is by contrasting it with...

The deregulation of the telecommunications industry has resulted in a variety of industry structures which have been created in the hope of increasing competition. One example is the licensing of cellular telephone services in the United States. In the face of scarce radio spectrum, the Federal...

This paper studies the impact that capital market imperfections have on the natural selection of the most efficient firms by estimating the effect of the pre-deregulation level of leverage on the survival of trucking firms after the Carter deregulation. Highly leveraged carriers are less likely...

I revisit the relation between aftermarket power and basic market competition. I consider an infinite period model with overlapping consumers: in each period, one consumer is born and joins one of the existing installed bases, then aftermarket payoffs are received by sellers and consumers, then...