We propose a clientele-based model of the yield curve and optimal maturity structure of government debt. Clienteles are generations of agents at different lifecycle stages in an overlapping-generations economy. An optimal maturity structure exists in the absence of distortionary taxes and...

This Paper revisits the puzzle of low returns on Swiss franc assets using a new dataset of international portfolio holdings at Swiss banks. The main findings are as follows. First, we find that the return anomaly is present only for fixed income assets and not for equity. Second, it is mostly...

Ratios that indicate the statistical significance of a fund’s alpha typically appraise its performance. A growing literature suggests that even in the absence of any ability to predict returns, holding options positions on the benchmark assets or trading frequently can significantly enhance...

We examine several continuous-time term-structure models, in which the short rate is subject to discrete shifts. Our empirical analysis suggests that inquiring which parameters of the short-term interest rate equation are allowed to switch is crucial, as failing to do so may result in switching...

Value stocks have higher exposure to innovations in the nominal bond risk premium than growth stocks. Since the nominal bond risk premium measures cyclical variation in the market’s assessment of future output growth, this results in a value risk premium provided that good news about future...

Identification problems arise naturally in forward-looking models when agents observe more than economists. We illustrate the problem in several macro-finance models with Taylor rules. When the shock to the rule is observed by agents but not economists, identification of the rule's parameters...

We discuss the use of event studies in macroeconomics and finance, arguing that many important macro-finance questions can only be answered using event studies with high-frequency financial market data. We provide a broad picture of the use of event studies, along with their limitations. As...

Repo auctions are multiunit auctions regularly used by central banks to inject liquidity into the banking sector. Banks have a fundamental need to participate because they have to satisfy reserve requirements. Superficially, repo auctions resemble treasury auctions; the format and rules are...

The estimation of dynamic no-arbitrage term structure models with a flexible specification of the market price of risk is beset by a severe small-sample problem arising from the highly persistent nature of interest rates. We propose using survey forecasts of a short-term interest rate as an...

Forward interest rates have become popular indicators of inflation expectations. The usefulness of this indicator depends on the relative volatility and the correlation of inflation expectations and expected real interest rates. This paper studies US and UK data, using a range of different tools...