Showing 1 - 10 of 43
, aggregate unemployment, or consumer expectations. The absence of such an effect, despite a comparatively large effect of energy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504244
We use unique data in which both partners report about household finances to demonstrate that there is often disagreement about whether the household has experienced financial difficulty in the past year. Four alternative explanations for this disagreement are tested using the data. The results...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004977295
This Paper proposes a method to conduct inference in panel VAR models with cross-unit interdependencies and time variations in the coefficients. The set-up used is Bayesian, and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are used to estimate the posterior distribution of the features of interest....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005497890
We provide a summary updated guide for the construction, use and evaluation of leading indicators, and an assessment of the most relevant recent developments in this field of economic forecasting. To begin with, we analyse the problem of selecting a target coincident variable for the leading...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666459
We set out a reference chronology for annual UK inflation, identifying nine complete cycles between 1958 and 1990. Inflation over this period is asymmetric, falling more quickly than it rises. Leading indicators are also proposed, with composite shorter and longer leading indicators constructed....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005789113
We provide, for the first time, comparative evidence of the impact of various types of extreme events – natural disasters, terrorism, and violent conflicts – on the perceptions of entrepreneurs concerning some key entrepreneurial issues – such as fear of failure in starting a business...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008692319
This paper shows that the Ricardian Equivalence proposition can continue to hold when expectations are not rational and … are instead formed using adaptive learning rules. In temporary equilibrium, with given expectations, Ricardian Equivalence … holds under the standard conditions for its validity under rational expectations. Furthermore, Ricardian Equivalence holds …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008468547
expectations about the age at which one will leave the labor market appears to be easier for workers in jobs with well defined …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004971379
Realignment expectations which measure exchange rate credibility are analysed for European exchange rates using daily … expectations and macroeconomic variables, although there are signs that lower inflation improves credibility. Statistically, many … movements to realignment expectations are common to ERM participants. There were few indications of poor ERM credibility before …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123774
their relative role in forming exchange rate expectations. We find that there are distinct periods of high and low …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005136619