The estimation of large Vector Autoregressions with stochastic volatility using standard methods is computationally very demanding. In this paper we propose to model conditional volatilities as driven by a single common unobserved factor. This is justified by the observation that the pattern of...

Studies of bond return predictability find a puzzling disparity between strong statistical evidence of return predictability and the failure to convert return forecasts into economic gains. We show that resolving this puzzle requires accounting for important features of bond return models such...

This paper examines the optimal consumption and portfolio choice problem of long-horizon investors who have access to a riskless asset with constant return and a risky asset (‘stocks’) with constant expected return and time varying precision – the reciprocal of volatility. Markets are...

In this note we demonstrate that in affine models for bilateral exchange rates, the nature of return interdependence during crises depends on the tail properties of the fundamentals’ distribution. We denote crisis linkages as either strong or weak, in the sense that the dependence remains or...

This Paper analyses corporate bond valuation and optimal call and default rules when interest rates and firm value are stochastic. It then uses the results to explain the dynamics of hedging. Bankruptcy rules are important determinants of corporate bond sensitivity to interest rates and firm...

Corporations in many countries are run by controlling shareholders whose cash flow rights in the firm are substantially smaller than their control rights. This separation of ownership and control allows the controlling shareholders to pursue private benefits at the cost of minority investors by...

This paper derives a tax-adjusted discount rate formula with a constant proportion leverage policy, investor taxes, and risky debt. The result depends on an assumption about the treatment of tax losses in default. We identify the assumption that justifies the textbook approach of discounting...

We investigate the timing and the valuation of strategic investment aimed at enhancing entry opportunities in related market segments. As demand is uncertain, entry options should be exercised at the optimal time, trading off the market share gain against the option to wait until more...

This paper proposes an alternative specification for the second stage of the Case-Shiller repeat sales method. This specification is based on serial correlation in the deviations from the mean one-period returns on the underlying individual assets, whereas the original Case-Shiller method...

Two main approaches are commonly used to empirically evaluate linear factor pricing models: regression and SDF methods, with centred and uncentred versions of the latter. We show that unlike standard two-step or iterated GMM procedures, single-step estimators such as continuously updated GMM...