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The Central Banker as a Risk Manager: Quantifying and Forecasting Inflation Risks
Kilian, Lutz; Manganelli, Simone - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2003
situation poses to price stability. We propose to regard the central banker as a risk manager who aims to contain inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123620
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UK Phillips Curves and Monetary Policy
Haldane, Andrew; Quah, Danny - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1999
unemployment-inflation tradeoff might indicate not something to be exploited but instead only policy-makers' correctly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005067633
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Granger Causality of the Inflation-Growth Mirror in Accession Countries
Gillman, Max; Nakov, Anton - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2005
The Paper presents a model in which the exogenous money supply causes changes in the inflation rate and the output … growth rate. While inflation and growth rate changes occur simultaneously, the inflation acts as a tax on the return to human … the income velocity of money that can break the otherwise stable relation between money, inflation, and output growth …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791637
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The Behaviour of the Real Exchange Rate: A Re-examination Using Finite Sample Approach
Kuo, Biing-Shen; Mikkola, Anne - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1997
The results of this paper complement the recent findings of real exchange rates as stationary processes. The standard procedure of applying a battery of unit root tests can be problematic since the tests are sensitive to the specifics of the time-series process. The novelty of the approach we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504540
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Empirics for Economic Growth and Convergence
Quah, Danny - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1995
The convergence hypothesis has generated a huge empirical literature: this paper critically reviews some of the earlier key findings, clarifies their implications, and relates them to more recent results. Particular attention is devoted to interpreting convergence empirics. The main findings...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005792413
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Spurious Correlation in Exchange Rate Target Zone Modelling: Testing the Drift Adjustment Method on the US Dollar, Random Walk and Chaos
Darvas, Zsolt - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1998
The drift-adjustment method estimates the expected rate of depreciation within an exchange rate band by simple equations. Papers applying this method claim that, while forecasting a freely floating currency is hopeless, predicting an exchange rate within the future band is successful. This paper...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791773
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How Sure Are We About PPP? Panel Evidence with the Null of Stationary Real Exchange Rates
Kuo, Biing-Shen; Mikkola, Anne - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1999
There has been serious suspicion of a spurious rejection of the unit roots in panel studies of PPP due to the failure to control for cross-sectional dependence. This article presents evidence of mean-reversion in industrial country real exchange rates in a set up that accounts naturally for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005661753
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Towards a Monthly Business Cycle Chronology for the Euro Area
Mönch, Emanuel; Uhlig, Harald - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2004
This Paper is an exercise in dating the euro area business cycle on a monthly basis. We construct several monthly European real GDP series, and then apply the Bry-Boschan (1971) procedure. Using this method we identify four business cycles. Studying further indicators of business activity, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005067594
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The Natural Rate Hypothesis: An idea past its sell-by-date
Farmer, Roger E A - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2013
Central banks throughout the world predict inflation with new-Keynesian models where, after a shock, the unemployment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084150
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Inflation and Inequality
Albanesi, Stefania - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2002
Cross-country evidence on inflation and inequality suggests that they are positively correlated. I explore the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005792380